Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Molson Coors Beverage Company stock $79.18, price $39.52, upside +100.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.08 – $74.31 · fair‑value band $48.17 – $119.86 · the $39.52 price screens below the $79.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
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Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beer and other malt beverage products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers flavored malt beverages including hard seltzers, craft, spirits, and ready to drink beverages.
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The company also provides non-alcoholic beverages including premium mixers and energy drinks.
It offers its products under Arnold Palmer Spiked, Aspall Cider, Blue Moon, Beck's, Blue Run Spirits, Cobra, Corona Extra, Coors Original, Fever-Tree, Heineken, Hidra, Leinenkugel's, Madri, Miller Genuine Draft, Molson Ultra, Peroni Nastro Azurro, Pilsner Urquell, Redd's, Rekorderlig, Sharp's, Simply Spiked, Staropramen, Stella Artois, Topo Chico Hard Seltzer, ZOA Energy, and Vizzy Hard Seltzer above premium brands; Bergenbier, Borsodi, Burgasko, Carling, Coors Banquet, Coors Light, Jelen, Miller Lite, Molson Canadian brands, Niksicko, and O"ujsko under the premium brands; and Branik, Icehouse, Keystone, Lowenbrau, Miller High Life, Milwaukee's Best, and Steel Reserve under the economy brands.
The company was formerly known as Molson Coors Brewing Company and changed its name to Molson Coors Beverage Company in January 2020. Molson Coors Beverage Company was founded in 1774 and is based in Golden, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) currently trades at $39.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.18, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $79.18 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $39.52 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $32.35, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $48.17 (bear) to $119.86 (bull), the price of $39.52 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Molson Coors Beverage Company reported revenue of $11.1B in FY2025 versus $10.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.4B Mid · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) $−11.44 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin −20.8% · Return on equity −19.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 100%, TAP-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$48.17Fair Value $79.18Bull$119.86
Price $39.52 · Upside +100.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.2% (2020) → −21.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.9% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate distribution scale offers some resilience, yet weak profitability and sustained net losses remain the central weakness in a competitive beer market.
Main risk: Intense price competition in the industry could further erode margins already under pressure from volume declines in the core beer business.
Molson Coors is expanding its recently acquired Monaco RTD cocktails beyond the five states where sales are now concentrated. This supports the Horizon 2030 push into diversified beverages while the core beer business contends with volume pressure. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the new categories deliver meaningful revenue growth or remain small add-ons that complicate operations without lifting overall results?
Compare Molson Coors Beverage Company with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+100.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−9.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−20.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.73× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Molson Coors Beverage Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TAP-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $79.18 versus a price of $39.52, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TAP-A?
Our model-based fair value for Molson Coors Beverage Company is $79.18 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.52.
What is the quality score of TAP-A?
Molson Coors Beverage Company has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $79.18 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $48.17, optimistic scenario $119.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Molson Coors Beverage Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $79.18, about +100% upside versus a price of $39.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $48.17, optimistic scenario $119.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Molson Coors Beverage Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
Does Molson Coors Beverage Company pay a dividend?
Molson Coors Beverage Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.81% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Molson Coors Beverage Company would have to grow free cash flow by -2.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Oct 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TAP-A use?
Our models discount Molson Coors Beverage Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Molson Coors Beverage Company that is -2.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Molson Coors Beverage Company grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies -2.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Molson Coors Beverage Company (-2.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.39 %: that much free cash flow Molson Coors Beverage Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Molson Coors Beverage Company it is $79.18 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $39.52. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Molson Coors Beverage Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, TAP-A trades below its calculated fair value: price $39.52, fair value $79.18, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAP-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($79.18). For Molson Coors Beverage Company the two are $39.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Molson Coors Beverage Company worth?
The market values Molson Coors Beverage Company at about $7.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $39.52; our models calculate a fair value of $79.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAP-A?
Our models span a range for Molson Coors Beverage Company: cautious scenario $48.17, base $79.18, optimistic $119.86 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $39.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TAP-A?
The PEG ratio of Molson Coors Beverage Company is 4.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Molson Coors Beverage Company (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity −19.5%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAP-A from its 52-week high?
Molson Coors Beverage Company trades at $39.52, about 27% below its 52-week high of $54.19 and 1% above the low of $39.08 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $79.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Molson Coors Beverage Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Molson Coors Beverage Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $39.52, calculated fair value $79.18 (+100%), Quality Score 49/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAP-A calculated?
We run Molson Coors Beverage Company through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $79.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Molson Coors Beverage Company currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was $39.52. Our model-based fair value is $79.18, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Molson Coors Beverage Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($48.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($48.17 to $119.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Molson Coors Beverage Company grew +0.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.6 %, EBIT margin −10.9 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Molson Coors Beverage Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The market capitalisation of Molson Coors Beverage Company is $7.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Molson Coors Beverage Company is 0.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Earnings per share at Molson Coors Beverage Company are $−11.44. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The dividend yield of Molson Coors Beverage Company is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The net margin of Molson Coors Beverage Company is −20.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Molson Coors Beverage Company is −19.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Molson Coors Beverage Company is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
The operating margin of Molson Coors Beverage Company is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Revenue at Molson Coors Beverage Company is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A)?
Earnings per share at Molson Coors Beverage Company are growing −42.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP-A) carry?
The net debt of Molson Coors Beverage Company is $5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 12, 2026