Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tamboran Resources Corporation stock $12.97, price $28.90, that is 55.1% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia.
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Its assets include a 25% non-operated working interest in EP 161; a 38.75% working interest in EPs 76, 98, and 117; and a 100% working interest in EPs 136 and 143, as well as EP (A) 197, located in the Betaloo Basin.
Tamboran Resources Corporation was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) currently trades at $28.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.97, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $9.68 (bear) to $19.36 (bull), the price of $28.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Tamboran Resources Corporation reported revenue of −$1.1M in FY2026 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$26.1M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B Small · EPS (TTM) $−1.19 · Return on equity −4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.8% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$80.7M · Net cash $134M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 7 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −55%, TBN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.68Fair Value $12.97Bull$19.36
Price $28.90 · Downside -55.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$11.39$15.26$22.7852
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$11.39$15.26$22.7852
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyPhillip Z PaceDirector2× since Nov 21, 2025: 12,000 shares, avg. $34.74$416,900Apr 13, 2026
BuyScott D SheffieldDirector6,990 shares at $36.02$251,780Apr 8, 2026
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Compare Tamboran Resources Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−55.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.37× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.97 versus a price of $28.90, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TBN?
Our model-based fair value for Tamboran Resources Corporation is $12.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.90.
What is the quality score of TBN?
Tamboran Resources Corporation has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.68, optimistic scenario $19.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tamboran Resources Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.97, about 55% lower versus a price of $28.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.68, optimistic scenario $19.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tamboran Resources Corporation it is $12.97 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $28.90. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, TBN trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.90, fair value $12.97, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TBN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.97). For Tamboran Resources Corporation the two are $15.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tamboran Resources Corporation worth?
The market values Tamboran Resources Corporation at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $28.90; our models calculate a fair value of $12.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TBN?
Our models span a range for Tamboran Resources Corporation: cautious scenario $9.68, base $12.97, optimistic $19.36 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $28.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tamboran Resources Corporation (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −4.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TBN from its 52-week high?
Tamboran Resources Corporation trades at $28.90, about 42% below its 52-week high of $49.99 and 28% above the low of $22.60 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tamboran Resources Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $28.90, calculated fair value $12.97 (−55%), Quality Score 54/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TBN calculated?
We run Tamboran Resources Corporation through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.97 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tamboran Resources Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $28.90. Our model-based fair value is $12.97, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tamboran Resources Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($9.68 to $19.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tamboran Resources Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
The market capitalisation of Tamboran Resources Corporation is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Earnings per share at Tamboran Resources Corporation are $−1.19. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −$80.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) hold?
Tamboran Resources Corporation holds more cash than debt, $134M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026
