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Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tamboran Resources Corporation A$0.04, price A$0.26, upside -84.6%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · AU · ISIN AU0000154841

TR Tamboran Resources Corporation logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Tamboran Resources Corporation

TBN · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0400 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −54.6 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.4000 A$0.1150 Fair Value A$0.0400 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1150 – A$0.4000 · fair‑value band A$0.0300 – A$0.0600 · the A$0.2600 price screens above the A$0.0400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia.

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Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia. Its assets include a 25% non-operated working interest in EP 161; a 38.75% working interest in EPs 76, 98, and 117; and a 100% working interest in EPs 136 and 143, as well as EP (A) 197, located in the Betaloo Basin. Tamboran Resources Corporation was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) currently trades at A$0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0400, implying the stock looks roughly 550.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 76/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0300 (bear) to A$0.0600 (bull), the price of A$0.2600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Tamboran Resources Corporation reported revenue of $0 in FY2024 versus $0 in FY2020. Reported net income was −$37.2M in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap A$1.6B (≈ $1.1B) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.0% · Revenue (TTM) A$296K · Revenue growth (YoY) −64.6% · Free cash flow −A$140M · Net debt A$10.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −85%, TBN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0300 Fair Value A$0.0400 Bull A$0.0600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 13
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TBN screens 550% overvalued. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 308 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −65% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.82× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $129.34 $90.15 −30%
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.84 HK$39.90 +67%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.64 $52.40 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $141.84 $165.02 +16%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $57.36 $33.34 −42%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $185.65 $242.64 +31%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $48.04 $52.84 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $51.06 $56.17 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $335.74 $318.28 −5%

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Tamboran Resources Corporation · Fair Value
A$0.0400 −550%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tamboran Resources Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TBN

Frequently asked questions

Is Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0400 versus a price of A$0.2600, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TBN?
Our model-based fair value for Tamboran Resources Corporation is A$0.0400 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2600.
What is the quality score of TBN?
Tamboran Resources Corporation has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0400 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0300, optimistic scenario A$0.0600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tamboran Resources Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0400, about −85% upside versus a price of A$0.2600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0300, optimistic scenario A$0.0600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Tamboran Resources Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$296K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tamboran Resources Corporation it is A$0.0400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.2600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TBN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2600, fair value A$0.0400, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TBN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0400). For Tamboran Resources Corporation the two are A$0.2200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tamboran Resources Corporation worth?
The market values Tamboran Resources Corporation at about A$1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TBN?
Our models span a range for Tamboran Resources Corporation: cautious scenario A$0.0300, base A$0.0400, optimistic A$0.0600 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.2600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tamboran Resources Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −8.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TBN from its 52-week high?
Tamboran Resources Corporation trades at A$0.2600, about 22% below its 52-week high of A$0.3350 and 58% above the low of A$0.1650 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tamboran Resources Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.2600, calculated fair value A$0.0400 (−85%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TBN calculated?
We run Tamboran Resources Corporation through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tamboran Resources Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.2600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0400, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tamboran Resources Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0300 to A$0.0600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tamboran Resources Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
The market capitalisation of Tamboran Resources Corporation is A$1.6B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Earnings per share at Tamboran Resources Corporation are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN)?
Revenue at Tamboran Resources Corporation is growing −64.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −A$140M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) carry?
The net debt of Tamboran Resources Corporation is A$10.9M (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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