Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tiger Brands Ltd ZAR 249, price ZAR 268, upside -7.2%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R126.49 – R380.47 · fair‑value band R162.17 – R358.36 · the R268.39 price screens above the R249.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tiger Brands Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of fast-moving consumer goods in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Milling and Baking; Culinary; Snacks, Treats, and Beverages; and Home and Personal Care segments. The company offers wheat milling and baking; and culinary, Davita, and baby nutrition products.
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Tiger Brands Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of fast-moving consumer goods in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Milling and Baking; Culinary; Snacks, Treats, and Beverages; and Home and Personal Care segments. The company offers wheat milling and baking; and culinary, Davita, and baby nutrition products. It operates under the Albany, All Gold, Black Cat, Crosse & Blackwell, DOOM, Energade, Fatti's & Moni's, Ingrams, Jungle Oats, KOO, Maynards, Mrs H.S Balls, Oros, PURITY, Tastic, and Benny brands. The company also exports its products to approximately 22 countries. Tiger Brands Limited was founded in 1921 and is based in Midrand, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) currently trades at R268.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R249.03, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R437.96 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the R268.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R77.84, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R162.17 (bear) to R358.36 (bull), the price of R268.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tiger Brands Ltd reported revenue of 34.4B ZAR in FY2025 versus 31.0B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 3.8B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 41.8B ZAC · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) R21.22 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −7%, TBS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R162.17Fair Value R249.03Bull R358.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.57 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.8% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 668 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R249.03 versus a price of R268.39, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TBS?
Our model-based fair value for Tiger Brands Ltd is R249.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R268.39.
What is the quality score of TBS?
Tiger Brands Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R249.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R162.17, optimistic scenario R358.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tiger Brands Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R249.03, about −7% upside versus a price of R268.39 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R162.17, optimistic scenario R358.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Tiger Brands Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tiger Brands Ltd pay a dividend?
Tiger Brands Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tiger Brands Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +28.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TBS use?
Our models discount Tiger Brands Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tiger Brands Ltd that is +28.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tiger Brands Ltd grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +28.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tiger Brands Ltd (+28.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.61 %: that much free cash flow Tiger Brands Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tiger Brands Ltd it is R249.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R268.39. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tiger Brands Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TBS trades above its calculated fair value: price R268.39, fair value R249.03, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TBS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R268.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R249.03). For Tiger Brands Ltd the two are R19.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tiger Brands Ltd worth?
The market values Tiger Brands Ltd at about 41.8B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R268.39; our models calculate a fair value of R249.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TBS?
Our models span a range for Tiger Brands Ltd: cautious scenario R162.17, base R249.03, optimistic R358.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R268.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TBS?
Tiger Brands Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R249.03 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.1 (reported for FY2025: 10.8). Other multiples: PEG 77.4, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TBS?
The PEG ratio of Tiger Brands Ltd is 77.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tiger Brands Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TBS from its 52-week high?
Tiger Brands Ltd trades at R268.39, about 29% below its 52-week high of R380.47 and 4% above the low of R259.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R249.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tiger Brands Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tiger Brands Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R268.39, calculated fair value R249.03 (−7%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TBS calculated?
We run Tiger Brands Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R249.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tiger Brands Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R268.39. Our model-based fair value is R249.03, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tiger Brands Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R162.17 to R358.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) come from?
Earnings per share at Tiger Brands Ltd grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tiger Brands Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The market capitalisation of Tiger Brands Ltd is 41.8B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tiger Brands Ltd is 1.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Earnings per share at Tiger Brands Ltd are R21.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The dividend yield of Tiger Brands Ltd is 6.2% (payout 78.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The net margin of Tiger Brands Ltd is 11.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tiger Brands Ltd is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tiger Brands Ltd is 13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
The operating margin of Tiger Brands Ltd is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Revenue at Tiger Brands Ltd is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)?
Earnings per share at Tiger Brands Ltd are growing −19.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) hold?
Tiger Brands Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.7B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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