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TC Energy Corporation (TCANF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of TC Energy Corporation $3.63, price $14.96, upside -75.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
TC Energy Corporation
TCANF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $3.63 · Strongly overvalued (−75.7%)
!Quality 51/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +3.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!22.9% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.44 – $14.99 · fair‑value band $3.63 – $4.66 · the $14.96 price screens above the $3.63 fair value. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions.
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TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions. The company builds and operates a network of 94,171 kilometers of natural gas pipelines, which transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, industrial facilities, interconnecting pipelines, LNG export terminals, and other businesses. It also has regulated natural gas storage facilities with a total working gas capacity of 532 billion cubic feet. In addition, the company owns or has interests in power generation facilities with approximately 4,650 megawatts; and owns and operates approximately 118 billion cubic feet of non-regulated natural gas storage facilities in Alberta, Ontario, Québec, and New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as TransCanada Corporation and changed its name to TC Energy Corporation in May 2019. TC Energy Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
TC Energy Corporation (TCANF) currently trades at $14.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.63, 75.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $7.39 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $14.96 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.6800, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.63 (bear) to $4.66 (bull), the price of $14.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
TC Energy Corporation reported revenue of C$15.2B in FY2025 versus C$13.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.5B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $68.9B · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) $2.54 · Net margin 23.2% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% · Operating margin 47.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −76%, TCANF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3400 to $9.78). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $3.63
Fair Value $3.63
Bull $4.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
$3.40
$9.11
77
Residual Income
$3.68
$4.33
$5.57
76
Growth DCF
n/a
$3.21
$8.10
75
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
$3.40
$9.11
77
Owner Earnings
n/a
$0.9100
>$3.64
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$1.19
$4.73
72
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
$0.3400
>$1.36
68
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.0100
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$1.32
$4.81
65
10Y P/E Exit
n/a
$0.7400
>$2.96
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.39
$9.35
$12.27
65
Lynch FV
$1.86
$2.66
$3.46
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.86
$2.66
$3.46
57
EPV
n/a
$0.6800
$1.78
68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.70
$9.78
$15.51
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.70
$7.39
$10.24
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.23
$6.97
$8.71
63
P/S Multiple
$1.94
$2.58
$3.23
58
P/B Multiple
$5.21
$6.95
$8.69
55
EV/EBIT
n/a
$1.41
$3.79
61
EV/EBITDA
n/a
n/a
$1.97
62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.93
$2.59
$3.86
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
$3.21
$8.10
75
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.68
$4.33
$5.57
76
ROIC Compounder
n/a
$0.6800
$1.78
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.34
$6.20
$8.06
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
73
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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’21
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’24
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 44%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.2% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.8%
TCANF screens overvalued: fair value 76% below the price. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Compare TC Energy Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $46.97 | $36.91 | −21% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $68.98 | $11.72 | −83% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $36.65 | $24.66 | −33% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $20.10 | $15.29 | −24% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $30.63 | $28.16 | −8% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $277.84 | $65.24 | −77% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.66 | $70.77 | +23% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $88.62 | $80.15 | −10% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $267.29 | $294.02 | +10% |
| Venture Global, Inc VG | $12.62 | $11.56 | −8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is TC Energy Corporation (TCANF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.63 versus a price of $14.96, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCANF?
Our model-based fair value for TC Energy Corporation is $3.63 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.96.
What is the quality score of TCANF?
TC Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.63 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.63, optimistic scenario $4.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TC Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.63, about −76% upside versus a price of $14.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.63, optimistic scenario $4.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
TC Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$15.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TC Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +20.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCANF use?
Our models discount TC Energy Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TC Energy Corporation that is +20.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TC Energy Corporation (TCANF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TC Energy Corporation grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +20.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TC Energy Corporation (+20.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.38 %: that much free cash flow TC Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TC Energy Corporation it is $3.63 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $14.96. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TC Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, TCANF trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.96, fair value $3.63, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCANF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.63). For TC Energy Corporation the two are $11.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TC Energy Corporation worth?
The market values TC Energy Corporation at about $68.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $14.96; our models calculate a fair value of $3.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCANF?
Our models span a range for TC Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $3.63, base $3.63, optimistic $4.66 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $14.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCANF?
TC Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
Balance-sheet figures for TC Energy Corporation (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 2.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to TC Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TC Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $14.96, calculated fair value $3.63 (−76%), Quality Score 51/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCANF calculated?
We run TC Energy Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TC Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.96. Our model-based fair value is $3.63, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TC Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of TC Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The market capitalisation of TC Energy Corporation is $68.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TC Energy Corporation is 1.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
Earnings per share at TC Energy Corporation are $2.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The net margin of TC Energy Corporation is 23.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TC Energy Corporation is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TC Energy Corporation is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
The operating margin of TC Energy Corporation is 47.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
Revenue at TC Energy Corporation is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TC Energy Corporation (TCANF)?
Earnings per share at TC Energy Corporation are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TC Energy Corporation (TCANF) carry?
The net debt of TC Energy Corporation is C$60.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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