TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TP ICAP Group PLC stock £5.64, price £3.22, upside +74.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.02 – £3.55 · fair‑value band £2.54 – £7.67 · the £3.22 price screens below the £5.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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TP ICAP Group PLC provides intermediary services, contextual insights, trade execution, pre-trade and settlement services, and data-led solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.
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It operates through Global Broking, Energy & Commodities, Liquidnet, and Parameta Solutions divisions. The Global Broking division operates in rates, foreign exchange (FX) and money markets, equities, and credit products; and offers broking, facilitating price discovery, and liquidity services.
The Energy & Commodities division operates in various commodities markets, including oil, gas, power, renewables, ferrous metals, base metals, precious metals, soft commodities, and digital assets.
This division also assists in canvassing the market for expressions of interest, intelligence gathering, negotiations, and post-transaction processing; and provides insights on the impact of unpredictable factors, such as weather conditions, geopolitics, and exchange rate movements.
The Liquidnet division operates Liquidnet, a cash equities dark/block electronic trading network; and Coex Partners, a trade advisory and agency execution service that covers listed derivatives, FX, government bonds, cleared interest rate swaps, and cash equities.
This division serves hedge funds, asset managers, and asset owners.
The Parameta Solutions division provides unbiased data products that facilitate trading, enhance transparency, reduce risk, and enhance operational efficiency; and pricing, reference data, and analytical tools . This division also offers real-time price information for the OTC financial and commodity markets delivering independent data for various asset classes, including rates, FX and money markets, volatility, oil, energy, inflation, credit, and equities.
TP ICAP Group PLC is based in Saint Helier, Jersey.
Stock analysis
TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) currently trades at £3.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.64, implying the stock looks roughly 42.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £6.29 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the £3.22 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at £0.6200, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £2.54 (bear) to £7.67 (bull), the price of £3.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TP ICAP Group PLC reported revenue of £2.4B in FY2025 versus £1.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was £186M in FY2025, compounding +147.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap £2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) £0.2500 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 75%, TCAP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£2.54Fair Value £5.64Bull£7.67
Price £3.22 · Upside +74.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0641 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.7% vs 4.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 86% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.3% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: TP ICAP shows steady data division growth alongside core broking with record adjusted EBIT and high gross margins, yet limited public signals provide no clear evidence of a durable competitive moat.
Main risk: Exposure to trading volume swings in the capital markets business would directly hit revenue in both the core broking platform and the expanding data division.
TP ICAP presses ahead with its seventh share buyback programme and recent treasury purchases. The group posted first-half revenue growth and record adjusted EBIT while its data division expands steadily alongside the core broking platform. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will ongoing capital returns through buybacks add more lasting value than any steps to highlight or separate the data business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+74.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)11.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TP ICAP Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCAP.LSE
Frequently asked questions
Is TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.64 versus a price of £3.22, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TCAP?
Our model-based fair value for TP ICAP Group PLC is £5.64 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.22.
What is the quality score of TCAP?
TP ICAP Group PLC has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £5.64 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.54, optimistic scenario £7.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TP ICAP Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £5.64, about +75% upside versus a price of £3.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.54, optimistic scenario £7.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
TP ICAP Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does TP ICAP Group PLC pay a dividend?
TP ICAP Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 5.33% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TP ICAP Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.5 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCAP use?
Our models discount TP ICAP Group PLC at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TP ICAP Group PLC that is -20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TP ICAP Group PLC grew +5.5 % a year. The price currently implies -20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TP ICAP Group PLC (-20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.94 %: that much free cash flow TP ICAP Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TP ICAP Group PLC it is £5.64 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of £3.22. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TP ICAP Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, TCAP trades below its calculated fair value: price £3.22, fair value £5.64, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCAP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£5.64). For TP ICAP Group PLC the two are £2.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TP ICAP Group PLC worth?
The market values TP ICAP Group PLC at about £2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is £3.22; our models calculate a fair value of £5.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCAP?
Our models span a range for TP ICAP Group PLC: cautious scenario £2.54, base £5.64, optimistic £7.67 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price £3.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCAP?
TP ICAP Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £5.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TCAP?
The PEG ratio of TP ICAP Group PLC is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 25, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
Balance-sheet figures for TP ICAP Group PLC (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCAP from its 52-week high?
TP ICAP Group PLC trades at £3.22, about 9% below its 52-week high of £3.55 and 34% above the low of £2.40 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £5.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TP ICAP Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TP ICAP Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price £3.22, calculated fair value £5.64 (+75%), Quality Score 61/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCAP calculated?
We run TP ICAP Group PLC through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £5.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. TP ICAP Group PLC currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was £3.22. Our model-based fair value is £5.64, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TP ICAP Group PLC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£2.54 to £7.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) come from?
Earnings per share at TP ICAP Group PLC grew −0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.2 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TP ICAP Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The market capitalisation of TP ICAP Group PLC is £2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TP ICAP Group PLC is 1.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
Earnings per share at TP ICAP Group PLC are £0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The dividend yield of TP ICAP Group PLC is 5.3% (payout 68.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The net margin of TP ICAP Group PLC is 8.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TP ICAP Group PLC is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TP ICAP Group PLC is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
The operating margin of TP ICAP Group PLC is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
Revenue at TP ICAP Group PLC is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP)?
Earnings per share at TP ICAP Group PLC are growing +7.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TP ICAP Group PLC (TCAP) carry?
The net debt of TP ICAP Group PLC is £65.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026