Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hoang Huy Investment Financial VND 6,194, price VND 11,550, upside -46.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hoang Huy Investment Financial Services Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, trading, and assembling of motorbikes and cars. The company also offers tractors, trucks, and spare parts under the Hoang Huy brand.
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Hoang Huy Investment Financial Services Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, trading, and assembling of motorbikes and cars. The company also offers tractors, trucks, and spare parts under the Hoang Huy brand. In addition, it supplies new and used trucks, and tractors products, as well as replacement parts under the Hoang Huy International brand name; distributes trucks under the Hoang Huy DongFeng brand name; and air purifiers, front wheel rim, and electric starter under the DongFeng brand name. Further, the company invests in real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Hai Phong, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH) currently trades at 11,550 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6,194 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 86.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 23,279 VND per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the 11,550 VND price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1,771 VND, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hoang Huy Investment Financial reported revenue of 1.4T VND in FY2026 versus 2.8T VND in FY2022, a compound −14.9%/yr. Reported net income was 194B VND in FY2026, compounding −16.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 14.0T VND · P/E ratio 48.2 · P/S ratio 6.47 · EPS (TTM) 239.76 VND · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −46%, TCH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6,194 VNDFair Value 6,194 VNDBull 6,194 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−69.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−35.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.8% a year for the price.
Compare Hoang Huy Investment Financial with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−46% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−80% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)48.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.22× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)7.32× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA30.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6,194 VND versus a price of 11,550 VND, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCH?
Our model-based fair value for Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 6,194 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11,550 VND.
What is the quality score of TCH?
Hoang Huy Investment Financial has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6,194 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoang Huy Investment Financial stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6,194 VND, about −46% upside versus a price of 11,550 VND (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Hoang Huy Investment Financial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hoang Huy Investment Financial pay a dividend?
Hoang Huy Investment Financial currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hoang Huy Investment Financial would have to grow free cash flow by -10.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -20.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCH use?
Our models discount Hoang Huy Investment Financial at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hoang Huy Investment Financial that is -10.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hoang Huy Investment Financial grew -20.0 % a year. The price currently implies -10.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hoang Huy Investment Financial (-10.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.27 %: that much free cash flow Hoang Huy Investment Financial produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoang Huy Investment Financial it is 6,194 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 11,550 VND. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hoang Huy Investment Financial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TCH trades above its calculated fair value: price 11,550 VND, fair value 6,194 VND, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11,550 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6,194 VND). For Hoang Huy Investment Financial the two are 5,356 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoang Huy Investment Financial worth?
The market values Hoang Huy Investment Financial at about 14.0T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 11,550 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 6,194 VND per share.
What is the P/E ratio of TCH?
Hoang Huy Investment Financial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6,194 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 30.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoang Huy Investment Financial (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCH from its 52-week high?
Hoang Huy Investment Financial trades at 11,550 VND, about 48% below its 52-week high of 22,381 VND and 15% above the low of 10,000 VND (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6,194 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoang Huy Investment Financial?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoang Huy Investment Financial stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 11,550 VND, calculated fair value 6,194 VND (−46%), Quality Score 37/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCH calculated?
We run Hoang Huy Investment Financial through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6,194 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hoang Huy Investment Financial itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 11,550 VND. Our model-based fair value is 6,194 VND, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoang Huy Investment Financial right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6,194 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Hoang Huy Investment Financial
How large is the market capitalisation of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The market capitalisation of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 14.0T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 6.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Earnings per share at Hoang Huy Investment Financial are 239.76 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The dividend yield of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 0.3% (payout 15.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The net margin of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 13.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
The operating margin of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Revenue at Hoang Huy Investment Financial is growing −79.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH)?
Earnings per share at Hoang Huy Investment Financial are growing −84.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hoang Huy Investment Financial (TCH) carry?
The net debt of Hoang Huy Investment Financial is 158B VND (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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