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Transcontinental Inc (TCL-B) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$586M (≈ $424M) · ISIN CA8935782034

What is Transcontinental Inc really worth?

TI Transcontinental Inc TCL-B · TO
PriceC$6.65
Fair ValueC$19.95
Upside+200.0%
Quality69/100

A solid business, trading 67% below our fair value of C$19.95.

As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Transcontinental Inc is C$19.95 per share against a price of C$6.65, so the fair value sits 200% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.3 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 52/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·10.15% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range C$14.14 – C$27.96

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from C$29.10 to C$19.95 (−31.4%) since Aug 25, 2026. Share price −14.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$14.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (C$14.14 to C$27.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$25.96 C$5.35 Fair Value C$19.95 Jul 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$5.35 – C$25.96 · fair‑value band C$14.14 – C$27.96 · the C$6.65 price screens below the C$19.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Transcontinental Inc (TCL-B) currently trades at C$6.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.95, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$34.69 per share, and 22 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$6.65 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$15.29, and 0 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Transcontinental Inc generated revenue of C$2.7B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at C$740M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$14.14 (bear case) to C$27.96 (bull case); at C$6.65, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 200%, TCL-B screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 10 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$0.9979 per share. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence C$20.22 C$26.84 C$38.70 81
Growth DCF C$20.86 C$27.19 C$37.59 79
Owner Earnings C$26.75 C$35.13 C$50.13 77
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence C$20.22 C$26.84 C$38.70 81
Owner Earnings C$26.75 C$35.13 C$50.13 77
5Y Revenue Exit C$21.29 C$32.46 C$48.95 72
5Y EBITDA Exit C$27.01 C$42.18 C$62.52 74
5Y P/E Exit C$18.97 C$28.52 C$40.12 71
10Y Revenue Exit C$19.97 C$29.04 C$39.33 67
10Y EBITDA Exit C$23.84 C$34.90 C$47.42 69
10Y P/E Exit C$19.32 C$26.66 C$34.06 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$13.88 C$23.34 C$28.42 67
EPV C$15.98 C$18.76 C$21.08 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$26.02 C$34.69 C$43.36 63
P/S Multiple C$26.02 C$34.69 C$43.36 58
P/B Multiple C$26.02 C$34.69 C$43.36 55
EV/EBIT C$28.67 C$39.70 C$50.73 66
EV/EBITDA C$37.92 C$52.03 C$66.15 67
EV/Revenue C$24.26 C$36.55 C$48.84 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$11.41 C$15.29 C$22.83 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$20.86 C$27.19 C$37.59 79
Rev-Margin DCF C$21.29 C$32.96 C$47.73 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$18.33 C$19.51 C$21.48 76
ROIC Compounder C$15.98 C$18.76 C$21.08 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$18.53 C$26.48 C$34.42 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (C$34.69) versus Asset-Based (C$15.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 3.8 as of Jul 16, 2026
P/S ratio 0.24 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) C$1.85 price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.8
Dividend yield 10.2% payout 36.5%
Net margin 6.2% FY2025
Return on equity 13.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) C$2.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −5.0% 3y avg −2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +541%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow C$246M FY2025
Net debt C$740M FY2025 · ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 98
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Transcontinental Inc. engages in the flexible packaging business in Canada, the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Packaging, Retail Services and Printing, and Media segments.

Full company description

Transcontinental Inc. engages in the flexible packaging business in Canada, the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Packaging, Retail Services and Printing, and Media segments. The Packaging sector engages in the extrusion, lamination, printing, and converting packaging solutions; and manufacturing and recycling flexible plastic, including rollstock, labels, die cut lids, shrink films, bags and pouches, and advanced coatings. This sector serves dairy, coffee, meat and poultry, pet food, agriculture, beverage, home and personal care products, industrial, consumer, and medical products. The Retail Services and Printing sector provides content, marketing and media solutions, including flyer retail printing, digital flyer, retail analytics, and in-store marketing solutions. It also offers print solutions for newspapers, magazines, and 4-color books. The Media sector is involved in printing and digital publishing of educational supplemental educational, and specialized publications for professionals in French and English. The company was formerly known as GTC Transcontinental Group Ltd CL A. Transcontinental Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Transcontinental Inc reported revenue of C$2.7B in FY2025 versus C$2.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$171M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$2.7B
Latest YoY
−2.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+12.8% · in CAD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+2.6%
Dividend yield10.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 6.2% vs 10Y 0.8%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9.4% (2020) → 9.6% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop219% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in CAD
Revenue +0.9%/yr
FY21 C$2.6B
FY22 C$3.0B
FY23 C$2.9B
FY24 C$2.8B
FY25 C$2.7B
Net income +7.0%/yr
FY21 C$131M
FY22 C$141M
FY23 C$85.8M
FY24 C$121M
FY25 C$171M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.7 %

of which total revenue +3.8 % · buybacks/dilution −1.0 %

EBIT margin −3.7 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Transcontinental Inc · Fair Value
C$19.95 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transcontinental Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCL-B

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 271 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.22× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.22× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.65× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 13
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST55 · sector 21
HEALTH89 · sector 93
DIVIDEND100 · sector 43

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $49.25 $22.66 −54%
Packaging Corporation PKG $233.94 $122.63 −48%
International Paper Company IP $36.46 $21.44 −41%
Amcor plc AMCR $45.15 $18.79 −58%
Ball Corporation BALL $61.67 $36.57 −41%
Crown Holdings CCK $119.08 $118.59 +0%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $173.07 $113.05 −35%
CCL Industries Inc CCLA C$93.99 C$77.64 −17%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €9.74 €11.42 +17%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.66 CHF 8.32 −39%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Transcontinental Inc (TCL-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$19.95 versus a price of C$6.65, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TCL-B?
Our model-based fair value for Transcontinental Inc is C$19.95 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$6.65.
What is the quality score of TCL-B?
Transcontinental Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transcontinental Inc (TCL-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$19.95 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$14.14, optimistic scenario C$27.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transcontinental Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$19.95, about +200% upside versus a price of C$6.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$14.14, optimistic scenario C$27.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-B)?
Transcontinental Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TCL-B?
The net profit margin of Transcontinental Inc is about 12.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Transcontinental Inc pay a dividend?
Transcontinental Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.15% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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