TCM Group (TCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of TCM Group DKK 83.56, price DKK 67.00, upside +24.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 32.59 – kr 140.05 · fair‑value band kr 45.65 – kr 135.37 · the kr 67.00 price screens below the kr 83.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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TCM Group A/S manufactures and sells kitchen and furniture products for bathrooms and storage in Denmark, Norway, and internationally. The company offers kitchen, bathroom and utility room fixtures, and sliding door cabinets under the Svane Køkkenet, Tvis køkken, Nettoline, AUBO, and private label brands.
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TCM Group A/S manufactures and sells kitchen and furniture products for bathrooms and storage in Denmark, Norway, and internationally. The company offers kitchen, bathroom and utility room fixtures, and sliding door cabinets under the Svane Køkkenet, Tvis køkken, Nettoline, AUBO, and private label brands. It also manufactures do-it-yourself solutions for private label and independent kitchen stores. In addition, the company supplies e-commerce kitchen business Celebert, which operates under the brands kitchn.dk, billigskabe. dk, Celebert, and Just Wood. TCM Group A/S was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Holstebro, Denmark.
Stock analysis
TCM Group (TCM) currently trades at kr 67.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 83.56, implying the stock looks roughly 19.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 152.53 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 67.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 28.82, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 45.65 (bear) to kr 135.37 (bull), the price of kr 67.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TCM Group reported revenue of 1.3B DKK in FY2025 versus 1.1B DKK in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was 77.8M DKK in FY2025, compounding −8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 696M DKK (≈ $106M) · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) kr 7.77 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 25%, TCM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 45.65Fair Value kr 83.56Bull kr 135.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 2.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks
P/B1.09× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TCM Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCM
Frequently asked questions
Is TCM Group (TCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 83.56 versus a price of kr 67.00, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TCM?
Our model-based fair value for TCM Group is kr 83.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 67.00.
What is the quality score of TCM?
TCM Group has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TCM Group (TCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 83.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 45.65, optimistic scenario kr 135.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TCM Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 83.56, about +25% upside versus a price of kr 67.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 45.65, optimistic scenario kr 135.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TCM Group (TCM)?
TCM Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TCM Group pay a dividend?
TCM Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TCM Group (TCM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TCM Group would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCM use?
Our models discount TCM Group at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TCM Group that is +14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TCM Group (TCM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TCM Group grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TCM Group (TCM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TCM Group (+14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TCM Group (TCM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.18 %: that much free cash flow TCM Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TCM Group (TCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TCM Group it is kr 83.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 67.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TCM Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TCM trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 67.00, fair value kr 83.56, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 67.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 83.56). For TCM Group the two are kr 16.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TCM Group worth?
The market values TCM Group at about 696M DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 67.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 83.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCM?
Our models span a range for TCM Group: cautious scenario kr 45.65, base kr 83.56, optimistic kr 135.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 67.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCM?
TCM Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 83.56 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.1 (reported for FY2025: 8.9). Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of TCM Group (TCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for TCM Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCM from its 52-week high?
TCM Group trades at kr 67.00, about 9% below its 52-week high of kr 73.40 and 15% above the low of kr 58.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 83.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TCM Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, King Slide Works Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TCM Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 67.00, calculated fair value kr 83.56 (+25%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCM calculated?
We run TCM Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 83.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TCM Group currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TCM Group (TCM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 67.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 83.56, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TCM Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 45.65 to kr 135.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of TCM Group (TCM) come from?
Earnings per share at TCM Group grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin −5.5 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TCM Group
How large is the market capitalisation of TCM Group (TCM)?
The market capitalisation of TCM Group is 696M DKK (≈ $106M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TCM Group (TCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TCM Group is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TCM Group (TCM)?
Earnings per share at TCM Group are kr 7.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TCM Group (TCM)?
The dividend yield of TCM Group is 6.7% (payout 57.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TCM Group (TCM)?
The net margin of TCM Group is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TCM Group (TCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TCM Group is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TCM Group (TCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TCM Group is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TCM Group (TCM)?
The operating margin of TCM Group is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TCM Group (TCM)?
Revenue at TCM Group is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TCM Group (TCM)?
Earnings per share at TCM Group are growing +25.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TCM Group (TCM) carry?
The net debt of TCM Group is 414M DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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