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Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tencent Holdings $98.95, price $53.80, upside +83.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Tencent Holdings
TCTZF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $98.95 · Strongly undervalued (+83.9%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.9% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 89/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.24 – $86.46 · fair‑value band $52.45 – $167.53 · the $53.80 price screens below the $98.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally.
Show more
Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally. The company's consumers business includes communications and social services, such as instant messaging and social networks; digital content, including online games, videos, live streaming, news, music, and literature; fintech services, which include mobile payment, wealth management, consumer loans, and securities trading; and various tools comprising network security management, browsing, navigation, application management, email, etc. Its enterprise business comprises marketing solutions, which offer digital tools, including user insight, creative management, placement strategy, and digital assets management; and cloud services, such as cloud computing, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and security and other technologies for financial services, education, healthcare, retail, industry, transport, energy, and radio and television industries. The company also invests in, produces, and distributes films and television programs; offers copyrights licensing and merchandise sales and other services; provides internet advertisement services; and offers software development, and information technology and system integration services, as well as develops and operates mobile games. The company was formerly known as Tencent (BVI) Limited and changed its name to Tencent Holdings Limited in February 2004. Tencent Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) currently trades at $53.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $98.95, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $129.13 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $53.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.71, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $52.45 (bear) to $167.53 (bull), the price of $53.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tencent Holdings reported revenue of 732B CNY in FY2025 versus 560B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was 219B CNY in FY2025, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $561B · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 4.49 · EPS (TTM) $3.58 · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin 29.9% · Return on equity 20.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 84%, TCTZF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $52.45
Fair Value $98.95
Bull $167.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$56.75
$93.39
$213.22
74
EPV
$28.78
$34.41
$39.41
74
Growth DCF
$53.31
$106.03
$217.15
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$56.75
$93.39
$213.22
74
Owner Earnings
$47.70
$115.92
$265.54
69
5Y Revenue Exit
$33.67
$58.06
$108.91
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$47.66
$86.37
$162.27
71
5Y P/E Exit
$58.86
$137.36
$244.69
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$39.67
$85.26
$112.45
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$51.33
$116.10
$228.34
64
10Y P/E Exit
$59.69
$140.79
$275.01
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$24.70
$172.26
$241.75
63
Lynch FV
$71.15
$101.64
$132.13
61
PEG = 1.0
$71.15
$101.64
$132.13
57
EPV
$28.78
$34.41
$39.41
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.99
$13.07
$21.99
65
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.99
$10.71
$13.62
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$59.94
$79.92
$99.90
63
P/S Multiple
$31.88
$42.51
$53.14
58
P/B Multiple
$46.31
$61.75
$77.19
55
EV/EBIT
$44.36
$60.17
$75.99
66
EV/EBITDA
$42.35
$57.50
$72.64
67
EV/Revenue
$22.41
$33.34
$44.27
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$9.58
$12.83
$19.15
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$53.31
$106.03
$217.15
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$34.95
$66.91
$128.99
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$25.09
$34.85
$67.71
72
ROIC Compounder
$38.91
$57.75
$73.59
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$90.39
$129.13
$167.87
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
’14
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’20
’21
’22
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.4% vs 22.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 33%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−31.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −33.3% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.6%
Watch TCTZF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Oracle Lands Major Cloud Deal With Tencent
- China's Tencent taps Oracle for 100,000 AI chips in $7B lease deal - report
- Tencent leases 100,000 chips from Oracle for $7 bln- FT
- Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Alibaba, Baidu, Kingsoft Cloud, Tencent, Hesai, Pony AI and WeRide
Compare Tencent Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 121 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Communication Services sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Communication Services
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOG | $341.08 | $334.16 | −2% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $725.18 | $797.70 | +10% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $487.38 | $536.12 | +10% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $86.71 | $67.13 | −23% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $145.36 | $131.44 | −10% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 194,700 KRW | 314,922 KRW | +62% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$30.02 | HK$101.50 | +238% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$32.38 | HK$71.46 | +121% |
| REA Group REA | A$157.50 | A$173.25 | +10% |
| Kakao Corp 035720 | 33,450 KRW | 32,003 KRW | −4% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $98.95 versus a price of $53.80, about +84% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TCTZF?
Our model-based fair value for Tencent Holdings is $98.95 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.80.
What is the quality score of TCTZF?
Tencent Holdings has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $98.95 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $52.45, optimistic scenario $167.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tencent Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $98.95, about +84% upside versus a price of $53.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $52.45, optimistic scenario $167.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Tencent Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 768B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Tencent Holdings pay a dividend?
Tencent Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tencent Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -31.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCTZF use?
Our models discount Tencent Holdings at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tencent Holdings that is -31.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tencent Holdings grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies -31.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tencent Holdings (-31.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.24 %: that much free cash flow Tencent Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Holdings it is $98.95 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $53.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tencent Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TCTZF trades below its calculated fair value: price $53.80, fair value $98.95, a gap of about +84% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCTZF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($98.95). For Tencent Holdings the two are $45.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tencent Holdings worth?
The market values Tencent Holdings at about $561B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $53.80; our models calculate a fair value of $98.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCTZF?
Our models span a range for Tencent Holdings: cautious scenario $52.45, base $98.95, optimistic $167.53 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $53.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCTZF?
Tencent Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $98.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.3, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TCTZF?
The PEG ratio of Tencent Holdings is 1.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Holdings (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 20.5%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCTZF from its 52-week high?
Tencent Holdings trades at $53.80, about 38% below its 52-week high of $86.46 and 1% above the low of $53.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $98.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Holdings?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Spotify Technology S.A, Baidu, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tencent Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $53.80, calculated fair value $98.95 (+84%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCTZF calculated?
We run Tencent Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $98.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Holdings currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $53.80. Our model-based fair value is $98.95, about +84% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tencent Holdings right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($52.45 to $167.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings grew +21.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.1 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tencent Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings is $561B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tencent Holdings is 4.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings are $3.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The dividend yield of Tencent Holdings is 8.9% (payout 133%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The net margin of Tencent Holdings is 29.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tencent Holdings is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tencent Holdings is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
The operating margin of Tencent Holdings is 34.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Revenue at Tencent Holdings is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tencent Holdings (TCTZF)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) carry?
The net debt of Tencent Holdings is $259B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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