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TerraCom Limited (TERCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of TerraCom Limited $0.08, price $0.05, upside +81.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
TerraCom Limited
TERCF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $0.0815 · Strongly undervalued (+81.1%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -27.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $0.0108 – $0.4838 · fair‑value band $0.0587 – $0.1157 · the $0.0450 price screens below the $0.0815 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
TerraCom Limited develops and operates coal mines in Australia and Africa. The company primarily explores thermal coal. Its flagship property is the Blair Athol coal mine located in Clermont, Queensland. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Guildford Coal Limited and changed its name to TerraCom Limited in November 2015.
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TerraCom Limited develops and operates coal mines in Australia and Africa. The company primarily explores thermal coal. Its flagship property is the Blair Athol coal mine located in Clermont, Queensland. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Guildford Coal Limited and changed its name to TerraCom Limited in November 2015. TerraCom Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
TerraCom Limited (TERCF) currently trades at $0.0450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0815, implying the stock looks roughly 44.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.1100 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.0450 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0587 (bear) to $0.1157 (bull), the price of $0.0450 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
TerraCom Limited reported revenue of A$227M in FY2025 versus A$549M in FY2021, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$33.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $99.1M · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin −14.6% · Return on equity −44.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 37.9% · Operating margin −19.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 81%, TERCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0587
Fair Value $0.0815
Bull $0.1157
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.0700
$0.1100
$0.1900
78
Growth DCF
$0.0700
$0.1100
$0.1800
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0500
$0.0800
$0.1300
73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.0700
$0.1100
$0.1900
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.0600
$0.1000
$0.1800
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0500
$0.0800
$0.1300
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.0600
$0.1100
$0.1600
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0600
$0.0900
$0.1500
67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0200
$0.0400
$0.0500
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0600
67
EV/Revenue
$0.0500
$0.0700
$0.0900
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0500
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.0700
$0.1100
$0.1800
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.0600
$0.1100
$0.1700
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Profitability
11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
4
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
72
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
10/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−34.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+134.9%
’12
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.8% (2020) → −6.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.0% a year for the price.
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Compare TerraCom Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Coal
Oil & gas
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10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.83 | ¥28.41 | +10% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥19.76 | ¥9.35 | −53% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥14.01 | ¥14.62 | +4% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹426.10 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 12,100 IDR | 4,698 IDR | −61% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥27.82 | ¥20.72 | −26% |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 1,055 IDR | 243.05 IDR | −77% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥15.35 | ¥6.23 | −59% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is TerraCom Limited (TERCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0815 versus a price of $0.0450, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TERCF?
Our model-based fair value for TerraCom Limited is $0.0815 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0450.
What is the quality score of TERCF?
TerraCom Limited has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0815 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0587, optimistic scenario $0.1157. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TerraCom Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0815, about +81% upside versus a price of $0.0450 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0587, optimistic scenario $0.1157. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
TerraCom Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$214M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TerraCom Limited pay a dividend?
TerraCom Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TerraCom Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -20.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TERCF use?
Our models discount TerraCom Limited at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TerraCom Limited that is -20.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TerraCom Limited (TERCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TerraCom Limited grew -6.5 % a year. The price currently implies -20.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TerraCom Limited (TERCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TerraCom Limited (-20.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.45 %: that much free cash flow TerraCom Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TerraCom Limited it is $0.0815 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0450. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TerraCom Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TERCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0450, fair value $0.0815, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TERCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0815). For TerraCom Limited the two are $0.0365 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TerraCom Limited worth?
The market values TerraCom Limited at about $99.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0450; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0815 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TERCF?
Our models span a range for TerraCom Limited: cautious scenario $0.0587, base $0.0815, optimistic $0.1157 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for TerraCom Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −44.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TERCF from its 52-week high?
TerraCom Limited trades at $0.0450, about 49% below its 52-week high of $0.0881 and 6% above the low of $0.0426 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0815 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TerraCom Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TerraCom Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0450, calculated fair value $0.0815 (+81%), Quality Score 41/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TERCF calculated?
We run TerraCom Limited through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0815, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TerraCom Limited currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0450. Our model-based fair value is $0.0815, about +81% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TerraCom Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0587). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.0587 to $0.1157) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of TerraCom Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The market capitalisation of TerraCom Limited is $99.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TerraCom Limited is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
Earnings per share at TerraCom Limited are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The dividend yield of TerraCom Limited is 8.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The net margin of TerraCom Limited is −14.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TerraCom Limited is −44.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TerraCom Limited is 37.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
The operating margin of TerraCom Limited is −19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
Revenue at TerraCom Limited is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −34.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TerraCom Limited (TERCF)?
Earnings per share at TerraCom Limited are growing −90.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does TerraCom Limited (TERCF) hold?
TerraCom Limited holds more cash than debt, A$2.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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