Tokio Marine Holdings (TKOMY) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $87.0B
Tokio Marine Holdings
TKOMY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 27, 2026, revised from $43.83 to $43.12 (−1.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +6.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.61 – $51.52 · fair‑value band $32.34 – $53.90 · the $50.61 price screens above the $43.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Tokio Marine Holdings (TKOMY) currently trades at $50.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.12, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tokio Marine Holdings generated revenue of $8.3T at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue declined 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $810B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.34 (bear case) to $53.90 (bull case); at $50.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -15%, TKOMY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($4,683) versus Asset-Based ($1,908). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (63).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in the non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance Business, Domestic Life Insurance Business, International Insurance Business, and Financial and Other Businesses.
Full company description
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in the non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance Business, Domestic Life Insurance Business, International Insurance Business, and Financial and Other Businesses. The company provides fire and allied lines, hull and cargo, health, personal accident, voluntary automobile, and other insurance products, as well as asset management services. It also offers investment advisory, investment trust, staffing, facility management, and nursing care services. The company was formerly known as Millea Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. in 2008. Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Tokio Marine Holdings reported revenue of $8.0T in FY2026 versus $5.8T in FY2022, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0T in FY2026, compounding +25.4%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +5.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TKOMY screens 15% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of PT Asuransi Tokio Marine Indonesia
- Is Tokio Marine Holdings (TSE:8766) Still Attractive After Strong 20.7% Year To Date Rise?
- AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Tokio Marine Canada Ltd.
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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