Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc $28.31, price $51.78, upside -45.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.88 – $53.56 · fair‑value band $21.82 – $39.71 · the $51.78 price screens above the $28.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in the non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance Business, Domestic Life Insurance Business, International Insurance Business, and Financial and Other Businesses.
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Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in the non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance Business, Domestic Life Insurance Business, International Insurance Business, and Financial and Other Businesses. The company provides fire and allied lines, hull and cargo, health, personal accident, voluntary automobile, and other insurance products, as well as asset management services. It also offers investment advisory, investment trust, staffing, facility management, and nursing care services. The company was formerly known as Millea Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. in 2008. Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) currently trades at $51.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.31, implying the stock looks roughly 82.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $21.82 (bear) to $39.71 (bull), the price of $51.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥8.0T in FY2026 versus ¥5.8T in FY2022, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.0T in FY2026, compounding +25.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $98.5B · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 2.12 · EPS (TTM) $3.19 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −45%, TKOMY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $21.82Fair Value $28.31Bull $39.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+50.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.35% vs 17%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 18%
2026 sits 56% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.7% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Tokio Marine Holdings Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.31 versus a price of $51.78, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKOMY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is $28.31 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.78.
What is the quality score of TKOMY?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.31 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.82, optimistic scenario $39.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokio Marine Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.31, about −45% upside versus a price of $51.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.82, optimistic scenario $39.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥8.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
Does Tokio Marine Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokio Marine Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKOMY use?
Our models discount Tokio Marine Holdings Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokio Marine Holdings Inc that is +13.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +13.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (+13.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.66 %: that much free cash flow Tokio Marine Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokio Marine Holdings Inc it is $28.31 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of $51.78. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, TKOMY trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.78, fair value $28.31, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKOMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.31). For Tokio Marine Holdings Inc the two are $23.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Tokio Marine Holdings Inc at about $98.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is $51.78; our models calculate a fair value of $28.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKOMY?
Our models span a range for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $21.82, base $28.31, optimistic $39.71 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price $51.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKOMY?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 2.9, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TKOMY?
The PEG ratio of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 1.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKOMY from its 52-week high?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc trades at $51.78, about 3% below its 52-week high of $53.56 and 55% above the low of $33.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokio Marine Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokio Marine Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price $51.78, calculated fair value $28.31 (−45%), Quality Score 58/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKOMY calculated?
We run Tokio Marine Holdings Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $51.78. Our model-based fair value is $28.31, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokio Marine Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.82 to $39.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc grew +17.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is $98.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 2.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Earnings per share at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc are $3.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The dividend yield of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 3.0% (payout 49.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The net margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 13.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
The operating margin of Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is 37.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Revenue at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY)?
Earnings per share at Tokio Marine Holdings Inc are growing −48.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (TKOMY) hold?
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥810B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 25, 2026