Telstra Group (TLGPY) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $39.5B
Telstra Group
TLGPY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $12.07 to $11.58 (−4.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.88 to $14.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.15 – $19.66 · fair‑value band $7.88 – $14.47 · the $17.56 price screens above the $11.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Telstra Group (TLGPY) currently trades at $17.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.58, implying the stock looks roughly 34.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Telstra Group generated revenue of $23.2B at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at $17.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.88 (bear case) to $14.47 (bull case); at $17.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -34%, TLGPY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($16.57) versus Asset-Based ($4.18). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Telstra Group Limited provides telecommunications and information services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Telstra Consumer; Telstra Business; Telstra Enterprise Australia; Telstra International; Networks, IT and Products; and Telstra InfraCo.
Full company description
Telstra Group Limited provides telecommunications and information services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Telstra Consumer; Telstra Business; Telstra Enterprise Australia; Telstra International; Networks, IT and Products; and Telstra InfraCo. It offers telecommunication and technology products and services to consumer and small and medium business customers using mobile and fixed network technologies, as well as operates call centers, retail stores, distribution network, digital channels, distribution systems, and Telstra Plus customer loyalty program. The company also provides network capacity and management, unified communications, cloud, security, industry solutions, integrated and monitoring services to government and large enterprise and business customers; wholesale services, including voice and data; and telecommunication products and services to other carriers, carriage service providers, and internet service providers, as well as builds and manages digital platforms. In addition, it operates the fixed passive network infrastructure, including data centers, exchanges, poles, ducts, pits and pipes, and fiber network; provides wholesale customers with access to network infrastructure; offers long-term access to components of infrastructure under the infrastructure services agreement; and operates the passive and physical mobile tower. The company was formerly known as Telstra Corporation Limited and changed its name to Telstra Group Limited in November 2022. Telstra Group Limited was founded in 1901 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Telstra Group reported revenue of $22.7B in FY2025 versus $21.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TLGPY screens 34% overvalued. Compare with China Mobile Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Telstra Stock Drops 3.8% After Network Outage Disrupts Calls and Trains
- Telstra Group ASX TLS Valuation Check As Income Focus And Buybacks Draw Fresh Investor Attention
- Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
Peer Group
Telecom Services · 250 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 600941 | ¥89.98 | ¥109.88 | +22% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $187.61 | $172.67 | -8% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,922 | ₹941.55 | -51% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.01 | ¥8.36 | +39% |
| América Móvil, S.A. AMXB | 23.07 MXN | 30.35 MXN | +32% |
| Vodafone Group VODN | 259.50 MXN | 507.27 MXN | +95% |
| Advanced Info Service Public Company ADVANC | 379.00 THB | 286.77 THB | -24% |
| Chunghwa Telecom Co 2412 | 133.50 TWD | 100.00 TWD | -25% |
| China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited 0762 | HK$6.50 | HK$13.03 | +100% |
| Telefónica, S.A TEFN | 75.67 MXN | 111.01 MXN | +47% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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