Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Telstra Corporation Limited $11.78, price $16.73, upside -29.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.15 – $19.66 · fair‑value band $8.76 – $15.71 · the $16.73 price screens above the $11.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Telstra Group Limited provides telecommunications and information services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Telstra Consumer; Telstra Business; Telstra Enterprise Australia; Telstra International; Networks, IT and Products; and Telstra InfraCo.
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Telstra Group Limited provides telecommunications and information services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Telstra Consumer; Telstra Business; Telstra Enterprise Australia; Telstra International; Networks, IT and Products; and Telstra InfraCo. It offers telecommunication and technology products and services to consumer and small and medium business customers using mobile and fixed network technologies, as well as operates call centers, retail stores, distribution network, digital channels, distribution systems, and Telstra Plus customer loyalty program. The company also provides network capacity and management, unified communications, cloud, security, industry solutions, integrated and monitoring services to government and large enterprise and business customers; wholesale services, including voice and data; and telecommunication products and services to other carriers, carriage service providers, and internet service providers, as well as builds and manages digital platforms. In addition, it operates the fixed passive network infrastructure, including data centers, exchanges, poles, ducts, pits and pipes, and fiber network; provides wholesale customers with access to network infrastructure; offers long-term access to components of infrastructure under the infrastructure services agreement; and operates the passive and physical mobile tower. The company was formerly known as Telstra Corporation Limited and changed its name to Telstra Group Limited in November 2022. Telstra Group Limited was founded in 1901 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) currently trades at $16.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.78, implying the stock looks roughly 42.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.57 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the $16.73 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.18, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.76 (bear) to $15.71 (bull), the price of $16.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Telstra Corporation Limited reported revenue of A$22.7B in FY2025 versus A$21.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.2B in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $38.7B · P/E ratio 24.2 · P/S ratio 2.32 · EPS (TTM) $0.6900 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −30%, TLGPY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.76Fair Value $11.78Bull $15.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs −6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.0% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Telstra Corporation Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.81× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.69× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)76· sector 76
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.78 versus a price of $16.73, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLGPY?
Our model-based fair value for Telstra Corporation Limited is $11.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.73.
What is the quality score of TLGPY?
Telstra Corporation Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.76, optimistic scenario $15.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telstra Corporation Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.78, about −30% upside versus a price of $16.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.76, optimistic scenario $15.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Telstra Corporation Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$23.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Telstra Corporation Limited pay a dividend?
Telstra Corporation Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telstra Corporation Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 0.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLGPY use?
Our models discount Telstra Corporation Limited at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telstra Corporation Limited that is +5.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telstra Corporation Limited grew 0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telstra Corporation Limited (+5.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.26 %: that much free cash flow Telstra Corporation Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telstra Corporation Limited it is $11.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.73. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telstra Corporation Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TLGPY trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.73, fair value $11.78, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLGPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.78). For Telstra Corporation Limited the two are $4.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telstra Corporation Limited worth?
The market values Telstra Corporation Limited at about $38.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.73; our models calculate a fair value of $11.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLGPY?
Our models span a range for Telstra Corporation Limited: cautious scenario $8.76, base $11.78, optimistic $15.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLGPY?
Telstra Corporation Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telstra Corporation Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLGPY from its 52-week high?
Telstra Corporation Limited trades at $16.73, about 15% below its 52-week high of $19.66 and 9% above the low of $15.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telstra Corporation Limited?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telstra Corporation Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.73, calculated fair value $11.78 (−30%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLGPY calculated?
We run Telstra Corporation Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Telstra Corporation Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $16.73. Our model-based fair value is $11.78, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telstra Corporation Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Telstra Corporation Limited grew −9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.6 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Telstra Corporation Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The market capitalisation of Telstra Corporation Limited is $38.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telstra Corporation Limited is 2.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Earnings per share at Telstra Corporation Limited are $0.6900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The dividend yield of Telstra Corporation Limited is 3.8% (payout 92.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The net margin of Telstra Corporation Limited is 9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telstra Corporation Limited is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telstra Corporation Limited is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
The operating margin of Telstra Corporation Limited is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Revenue at Telstra Corporation Limited is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY)?
Earnings per share at Telstra Corporation Limited are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telstra Corporation Limited (TLGPY) carry?
The net debt of Telstra Corporation Limited is A$17.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026