Terra Metals Ltd (TM1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Terra Metals Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.16, upside -84.1%, quality 22 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0180 – A$4.46 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0340 · the A$0.1600 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Terra Metals Limited engages in mineral exploration and development activities in Australia. It explores in copper, gold, platinum group elements, vanadium, and titanium. The company's flagship project is the 100% owned Dante project located to the West Musgrave region of Western Australia.
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Terra Metals Limited engages in mineral exploration and development activities in Australia. It explores in copper, gold, platinum group elements, vanadium, and titanium. The company's flagship project is the 100% owned Dante project located to the West Musgrave region of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as GCX Metals Limited and changed its name to Terra Metals Limited in April 2024. Terra Metals Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Terra Metals Ltd (TM1) currently trades at A$0.1600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, 84.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0170 (bear) to A$0.0340 (bull), the price of A$0.1600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Terra Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2023 versus A$0 in FY2019. Reported net income was −A$3.3K in FY2024.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −84%, TM1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0170Fair Value A$0.0255Bull A$0.0340
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/4 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−84.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−55.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth86.9% · Top 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Terra Metals Ltd (TM1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.1600, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TM1?
Our model-based fair value for Terra Metals Ltd is A$0.0255 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1600.
What is the quality score of TM1?
Terra Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Terra Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −84% upside versus a price of A$0.1600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
Terra Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$55.9K (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Terra Metals Ltd it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.1600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Terra Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TM1 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1600, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TM1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For Terra Metals Ltd the two are A$0.1345 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Terra Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Terra Metals Ltd at about A$237M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TM1?
Our models span a range for Terra Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0170, base A$0.0255, optimistic A$0.0340 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.1600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Terra Metals Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −107.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 22/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TM1 from its 52-week high?
Terra Metals Ltd trades at A$0.1600, about 64% below its 52-week high of A$0.4450 and 62% above the low of A$0.0990 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Terra Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Terra Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.1600, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−84%), Quality Score 22/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TM1 calculated?
We run Terra Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Terra Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.1600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Terra Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0170 to A$0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Terra Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
The market capitalisation of Terra Metals Ltd is A$237M (≈ $165M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
Earnings per share at Terra Metals Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Terra Metals Ltd is −107% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Terra Metals Ltd is −56.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
The operating margin of Terra Metals Ltd is −7,852% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Terra Metals Ltd (TM1)?
Revenue at Terra Metals Ltd is growing +86.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Terra Metals Ltd (TM1) generate?
The free cash flow of Terra Metals Ltd is −A$3.2K (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Terra Metals Ltd (TM1) hold?
Terra Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$433K net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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