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The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. $0.28, price $2.04, upside -86.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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TM
Thin data
Oct 17, 2026
Thin data
Oct 17, 2026
The Metals Royalty Company Inc.
TMCR · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 86% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 65/100
Fair value $0.2800 · Strongly overvalued (−86.3%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 0/100
Thin data
Structural break⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
6‑month range $2.04 – $15.70 · fair‑value band $0.2100 – $0.3100 · the $2.04 price screens above the $0.2800 fair value. As of Oct 17, 2026.
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Company profile
The Metals Royalty Company Inc. engages in the acquisition and management of metals and mineral royalties, streams, and other related interests in North America. It primarily holds a 2.0% interest in the NORI property, a polymetallic nodule project located in southwest of San Diego, California.
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The company was formerly known as Low Carbon Royalties Inc. and changed its name to The Metals Royalty Company Inc. in September 2025. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock (TMCR) currently trades at $2.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2800, 86.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.3100 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the $2.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.0800, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2100 (bear) to $0.3100 (bull), the price of $2.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2023. Reported net income was $1.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $154M · EPS (TTM) $−0.4700 · Return on equity −26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.4% · EPS growth (YoY) +118% · Free cash flow −$3.2M.
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −86%, TMCR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0800 to $1.39). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.2100
Fair Value $0.2800
Bull $0.3100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/E Multiple
$0.2100
$0.2800
$0.3500
63
Residual Income
$0.3100
$0.2900
$0.2900
61
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.1700
$0.2400
$0.3100
59
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.1100
$0.3000
$0.3900
51
Lynch FV
$0.0600
$0.0800
$0.1100
48
PEG = 1.0
$0.0600
$0.0800
$0.1100
45
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.2100
$0.2800
$0.3500
63
P/B Multiple
$1.04
$1.39
$1.73
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2300
$0.3100
$0.4600
51
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.3100
$0.2900
$0.2900
61
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.1700
$0.2400
$0.3100
59
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
20
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
74
Are margins and returns getting better?
Financial strength
100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Low Volatility
0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
TMCR screens overvalued: fair value 86% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- The Metals Royalty Company Announces Fully Allocated US$165 Million Financing to Fund Acquisition of Additional 1.0% Mesabi Royalty
- The Metals Royalty Company Announces Completion of First Production Blast at Mesabi Metallics
- The Metals Royalty Company Provides Update on Mesabi Metallics Construction Progress Following Executive Site Visit
- Prediction: TMC The Metals Company Will Soar Over the Next Year -- 2 Key Catalysts to Watch
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 377 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹256.30 | ₹655.92 | +156% | vs TMCR |
| Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 | ¥34.08 | ¥54.86 | +61% | vs TMCR |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.04 | ¥19.15 | +12% | vs TMCR |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.30 SAR | 67.43 SAR | +10% | vs TMCR |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹546.90 | ₹601.59 | +10% | vs TMCR |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥34.74 | ¥38.21 | +10% | vs TMCR |
| Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYC | A$12.41 | A$11.82 | −5% | vs TMCR |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,009,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −36% | vs TMCR |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥40.80 | ¥23.62 | −42% | vs TMCR |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$11.60 | C$4.50 | −61% | vs TMCR |
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Frequently asked questions
Is The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2800 versus a price of $2.04, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMCR?
Our model-based fair value for The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock is $0.2800 (as of Oct 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.04.
What is the quality score of TMCR?
The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2800 (as of Oct 17, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.3100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2800, about −86% upside versus a price of $2.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.3100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock it is $0.2800 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026), against a price of $2.04. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 17, 2026, TMCR trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.04, fair value $0.2800, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMCR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2800). For The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock the two are $1.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock at about $154M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 17, 2026). Per share that is $2.04; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMCR?
Our models span a range for The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $0.2100, base $0.2800, optimistic $0.3100 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026, price $2.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock (as of Oct 17, 2026): return on equity −26.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 17, 2026: price $2.04, calculated fair value $0.2800 (−86%), Quality Score 65/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMCR calculated?
We run The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $2.04. Our model-based fair value is $0.2800, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
The market capitalisation of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock is $154M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
Earnings per share at The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock are $−0.4700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock is −26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock is −16.4% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast are earnings growing at The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR)?
Earnings per share at The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock are growing +118% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Metals Royalty Company Inc. (TMCR) generate?
The free cash flow of The Metals Royalty Company Inc. Common Stock is −$3.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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