Toda Corporation (TODCF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.0B

A solid business, screening 61% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.95). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• A fairly wide model range ($6.95 to $16.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (23 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

23‑month range $6.16 – $6.80 · fair‑value band $6.95 – $16.46 · the $6.70 price screens below the $10.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Toda Corporation (TODCF) currently trades at $6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.80, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Toda Corporation generated revenue of $646B at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue declined 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $163B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.95 (bear case) to $16.46 (bull case); at $6.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 61%, TODCF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($16.90) versus Economic Profit ($4.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Toda Corporation primarily engages in the construction and civil engineering businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Construction, Civil Engineering, Domestic Investment and Development, Domestic Group Companies, Overseas Group Companies, and Environment and Energy segments.

Full company description

Toda Corporation primarily engages in the construction and civil engineering businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Construction, Civil Engineering, Domestic Investment and Development, Domestic Group Companies, Overseas Group Companies, and Environment and Energy segments. It is involved in the research, planning, design, management, and execution of architectural and civil engineering works; and activities related to local and urban development, as well as provides related engineering and consulting services. The company also purchases, sells, rents, intermediates, manages, and appraises real estate properties. In addition, it engages in renewable energy business, such as floating offshore wind power generation. The company was formerly known as Toda-Gumi Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Toda Corporation in 1963. Toda Corporation was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Toda Corporation reported revenue of $646B in FY2026 versus $502B in FY2022, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $37.0B in FY2026, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2022.

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Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.