Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.44 – $247.80 · fair‑value band $90.50 – $260.76 · the $164.55 price screens above the $159.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Tokyo Electron Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor production equipment in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, North America, Europe, and internationally.
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Tokyo Electron Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor production equipment in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company provides coaters/developers, plasma etch systems, cleaning systems, deposition systems, test systems, 3D integration systems, SiC Epitaxial CVD systems, and gas cluster beam systems, as well as other deposition and lithography and other products. It also offers engineering services; spare parts/repairs; upgrades/modification; and used products. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) currently trades at $164.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $159.06, implying the stock looks roughly 3.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $164.06 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the $164.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.15, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $90.50 (bear) to $260.76 (bull), the price of $164.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2026 versus ¥2.0T in FY2022, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥609B in FY2026, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $151B · P/E ratio 41.8 · P/S ratio 9.82 · EPS (TTM) $3.94 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 23.5% · Return on equity 30.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 158% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −3%, TOELY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $90.50Fair Value $159.06Bull $260.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 24%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 26%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 212 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokyo Electron Ltd PK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOELY
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $159.06 versus a price of $164.55, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TOELY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is $159.06 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $164.55.
What is the quality score of TOELY?
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $159.06 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $90.50, optimistic scenario $260.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Electron Ltd PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $159.06, about −3% upside versus a price of $164.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $90.50, optimistic scenario $260.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Tokyo Electron Ltd PK pay a dividend?
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyo Electron Ltd PK would have to grow free cash flow by +33.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOELY use?
Our models discount Tokyo Electron Ltd PK at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokyo Electron Ltd PK that is +33.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (+33.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.47 %: that much free cash flow Tokyo Electron Ltd PK produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Electron Ltd PK it is $159.06 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $164.55. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Electron Ltd PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, TOELY trades above its calculated fair value: price $164.55, fair value $159.06, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOELY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($164.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($159.06). For Tokyo Electron Ltd PK the two are $5.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Electron Ltd PK worth?
The market values Tokyo Electron Ltd PK at about $151B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $164.55; our models calculate a fair value of $159.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOELY?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Electron Ltd PK: cautious scenario $90.50, base $159.06, optimistic $260.76 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $164.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOELY?
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.8 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $159.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 12.0, P/S 9.5, EV/EBITDA 31.4.
What is the PEG ratio of TOELY?
The PEG ratio of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 30.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOELY from its 52-week high?
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK trades at $164.55, about 29% below its 52-week high of $231.33 and 158% above the low of $63.77 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $159.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Electron Ltd PK?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Electron Ltd PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $164.55, calculated fair value $159.06 (−3%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOELY calculated?
We run Tokyo Electron Ltd PK through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $159.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Electron Ltd PK itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The closing price on Sep 16, 2026 was $164.55. Our model-based fair value is $159.06, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Electron Ltd PK right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($90.50 to $260.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK grew +22.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.5 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is $151B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 9.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK are $3.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The dividend yield of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 0.9% (payout 38.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The net margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 23.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 30.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 25.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Revenue at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK is growing +33.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Electron Ltd PK are growing +40.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tokyo Electron Ltd PK (TOELY) hold?
Tokyo Electron Ltd PK holds more cash than debt, ¥415B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026