Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CA · Market cap C$11.8B (≈ $8.6B) · ISIN CA6087112067
What is Molson Coors Canada Inc really worth?
A solid business, trading 41% below our fair value of C$105.41.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from C$7,355 to C$105.41 (−98.6%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −0.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$80.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (C$80.91 to C$188.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$38.50 – C$109.34 · fair‑value band C$80.91 – C$188.74 · the C$62.50 price screens below the C$105.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) currently trades at C$62.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$105.41, implying the stock looks roughly 40.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$131.06 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$62.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$35.94, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Revenue declined 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −6.2%. Net debt stands at C$5.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$80.91 (bear case) to C$188.74 (bull case); at C$62.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 69%, TPX-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$131.06) versus Asset-Based (C$35.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Molson Coors Canada Inc. brews, markets, sells, and distributes various beer brands in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
Full company description
Molson Coors Canada Inc. brews, markets, sells, and distributes various beer brands in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company sells its products under the Aguila, Apantinsko, AriZona Hard, Arnold Palmer Spiked, Aspall, Astika, Bergenbier, Bergenbier Non-Alcoholic, Black Horse, Black Ice, Blue Moon, Blue Run Spirits, Bohemian, Borsodi, Branik, Brasseur de Montréal, Burgasko, Caffrey's, Carling, Carling Cider, Cobra, Cool, Coors, Coors Banquet, Coors Edge, Coors Light, Coors Original, Coors Seltzer, Coors Whiskey Company, Creemore Springs, Cristal, Cusqueña, Fine Company, Foster's, Franciscan Well, Fresh, George Killian's Irish Red, Golden Wing, Granville Island Brewing, Grif, Grolsch, Hamm's, Happy Thursday, Henry Weinhard's Gourmet Sodas, Hop Valley, Icehouse, India Beer, Jelen, Kamenitza, Kamenitza Non-Alcoholic, Keystone Light, Laurentide, Lech, and Leinenkugel's brands. It also offers its products under the Madrí Excepcional, Mickey's, Miller Chill, Miller Genuine Draft, Miller High Life, Miller Lite, Miller64 Extra Light, Milwaukee's Best, Molson Canadian, Molson Canadian Cold Shots, Molson Dry, Molson Exel, Molson Export, Molson Stock Ale, Molson Ultra, Nik"icko, Noroc, Okeefe, Old Style Pilsner, Old Vienna, Olde English 800, Ostravar, O"ujsko, Pardubický Pivovar, Peace Hard Tea, Peroni, Pilsner Urquell, Praha, Pravha, Rákóczi, Redd's Hard Apple, Redd's Wicked, Rekorderlig, Rickard's, Riesenbrau, Roxie, Sharp's, Simply Spiked, Sol Cerveza, Standard Lager, Staropramen, Staropramen Non-Alcoholic, Steel Reserve Alloy Series, Steel Reserve High Gravity, Stones Bitter, Sunny Provisions, Tarquin's, Topo Chico Hard Seltzer, Topo Chico Spirited, Trou Du Diable, Twin Fin, Tyskie, Velvet, Vizzy Hard Seltzer, Vukovarsko, WAI, Worthington's, Zima, and ZOA brands. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Montreal, Canada. Molson Coors Canada Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Molson Coors Beverage Company.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Molson Coors Canada Inc reported revenue of $11.1B in FY2025 versus $10.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.1B in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Molson Coors Beverage Company to Webcast 2026 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call
- Molson Coors Beverage Company Announces Regular Quarterly Dividend
- Molson Coors Beverage Company Reports 2026 First Quarter Results
- Molson Coors Announces Europe President and CEO Simon Cox to Retire at the End of the Year
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.28 | €60.24 | −12% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €72.70 | €65.06 | −11% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | $2.86 | $4.05 | +42% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $120.41 | $54.74 | −55% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $129.09 | $173.19 | +34% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,115 | kr 607.30 | −46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €68.25 | €60.55 | −11% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥51.63 | ¥63.65 | +23% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | −5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.16 | HK$25.38 | +15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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