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Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Molson Coors Canada Inc stock C$121, price C$63.00, upside +92.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · CA · ISIN CA6087112067

MC Molson Coors Canada Inc logo Some data Oct 18, 2026

Molson Coors Canada Inc

TPX-A · TO

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

The stock costs 48% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value C$121.00 · Strongly undervalued (+92.1%)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
4.2% dividend yield · Cash covered
Quality 51/100
Some data
Weak Growth (revenue 3y +1.4 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -9.2% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 22/100
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$109.34 C$38.50 Fair Value C$121.00 Jun 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$38.50 – C$109.34 · fair‑value band C$77.91 – C$199.84 · the C$63.00 price screens below the C$121.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Molson Coors Canada Inc. brews, markets, sells, and distributes various beer brands in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.

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The company sells its products under the Aguila, Apantinsko, AriZona Hard, Arnold Palmer Spiked, Aspall, Astika, Bergenbier, Bergenbier Non-Alcoholic, Black Horse, Black Ice, Blue Moon, Blue Run Spirits, Bohemian, Borsodi, Branik, Brasseur de Montréal, Burgasko, Caffrey's, Carling, Carling Cider, Cobra, Cool, Coors, Coors Banquet, Coors Edge, Coors Light, Coors Original, Coors Seltzer, Coors Whiskey Company, Creemore Springs, Cristal, Cusqueña, Fine Company, Foster's, Franciscan Well, Fresh, George Killian's Irish Red, Golden Wing, Granville Island Brewing, Grif, Grolsch, Hamm's, Happy Thursday, Henry Weinhard's Gourmet Sodas, Hop Valley, Icehouse, India Beer, Jelen, Kamenitza, Kamenitza Non-Alcoholic, Keystone Light, Laurentide, Lech, and Leinenkugel's brands.

It also offers its products under the Madrí Excepcional, Mickey's, Miller Chill, Miller Genuine Draft, Miller High Life, Miller Lite, Miller64 Extra Light, Milwaukee's Best, Molson Canadian, Molson Canadian Cold Shots, Molson Dry, Molson Exel, Molson Export, Molson Stock Ale, Molson Ultra, Nik"icko, Noroc, Okeefe, Old Style Pilsner, Old Vienna, Olde English 800, Ostravar, O"ujsko, Pardubický Pivovar, Peace Hard Tea, Peroni, Pilsner Urquell, Praha, Pravha, Rákóczi, Redd's Hard Apple, Redd's Wicked, Rekorderlig, Rickard's, Riesenbrau, Roxie, Sharp's, Simply Spiked, Sol Cerveza, Standard Lager, Staropramen, Staropramen Non-Alcoholic, Steel Reserve Alloy Series, Steel Reserve High Gravity, Stones Bitter, Sunny Provisions, Tarquin's, Topo Chico Hard Seltzer, Topo Chico Spirited, Trou Du Diable, Twin Fin, Tyskie, Velvet, Vizzy Hard Seltzer, Vukovarsko, WAI, Worthington's, Zima, and ZOA brands.

The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Montreal, Canada. Molson Coors Canada Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Molson Coors Beverage Company.

Stock analysis

Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) currently trades at C$63.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$121.00, implying the stock looks roughly 47.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$170.42 per share, and 12 of the 12 models we run sit above the C$63.00 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$95.66, and 0 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: C$77.91 (bear) to C$199.84 (bull), the price of C$63.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Molson Coors Canada Inc reported revenue of $11.1B in FY2025 versus $10.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.1B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$11.8B (≈ $8.4B) Mid · P/S ratio 5.38 · EPS (TTM) C$−16.09 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin −9.2% · Return on equity −6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 11.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 92%, TPX-A screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$77.91 Fair Value C$121.00 Bull C$199.84
Price C$63.00 · Upside +92.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF C$77.14 C$120.53 C$205.53 74
Growth DCF C$82.44 C$125.10 C$202.41 72
5Y EBITDA Exit C$108.72 C$180.58 C$275.83 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$77.14 C$120.53 C$205.53 74
5Y Revenue Exit C$65.33 C$105.45 C$163.78 68
5Y EBITDA Exit C$108.72 C$180.58 C$275.83 70
10Y Revenue Exit C$66.42 C$97.61 C$131.07 64
10Y EBITDA Exit C$96.08 C$145.60 C$199.07 65
Earnings-Based
EPV C$77.61 C$95.66 C$111.81 70
Multiples
EV/EBIT C$117.61 C$170.42 C$223.23 64
EV/EBITDA C$133.78 C$191.97 C$250.17 65
EV/Revenue C$47.54 C$85.41 C$123.27 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$82.44 C$125.10 C$202.41 72
Rev-Margin DCF C$65.33 C$107.67 C$159.67 68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$77.61 C$98.33 C$122.47 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 13
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 50
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 43
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 92
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 36
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 37
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.0% (2021) → 14.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.2% a year for the price.

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Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Diversification into non-alcoholic and RTD brands marks the main strength, while sustained net losses and weak moat signals remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Ongoing category weakness and cost pressure on legacy beer volumes would hit demand and operating margins.
Molson Coors is accelerating its shift beyond traditional beer through non-alcoholic launches like the nationwide rollout of Coors 0.0 and stronger-than-expected contributions from acquired RTD brands such as Monaco. Core volumes remain under pressure from category weakness and costs, even as the company reaffirms its 2026 outlook under the Horizon 2030 plan. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will diversification into these newer segments more than offset the drag from the legacy beer business, or will the two trends largely cancel each other out?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 54 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +92.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −9.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −9.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 11.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −8.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.38× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.82× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 3.86× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow 7.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 48.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.49× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)81 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)84 · sector 61

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW kr 429.40 kr 662.99 +54% vs TPX-A
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $131.35 $183.71 +40% vs TPX-A
Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 ¥51.25 ¥63.71 +24% vs TPX-A
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 ¥11.37 ¥11.10 −2% vs TPX-A
Heineken N.V HEIA €76.10 €69.18 −9% vs TPX-A
Heineken Holding HEIO €72.30 €64.09 −11% vs TPX-A
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI €71.02 €61.80 −13% vs TPX-A
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co 002461 ¥9.11 ¥7.21 −21% vs TPX-A
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX $119.24 $28.57 −76% vs TPX-A
United Breweries Limited UBL ₹1,200 ₹141.82 −88% vs TPX-A

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Molson Coors Canada Inc · Fair Value
C$121.00 +48%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Molson Coors Canada Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TPX-A

Frequently asked questions

Is Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$121.00 versus a price of C$63.00, about +92% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TPX-A?
Our model-based fair value for Molson Coors Canada Inc is C$121.00 (as of Oct 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$63.00.
What is the quality score of TPX-A?
Molson Coors Canada Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$121.00 (as of Oct 18, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$77.91, optimistic scenario C$199.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Molson Coors Canada Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$121.00, about +92% upside versus a price of C$63.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$77.91, optimistic scenario C$199.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Molson Coors Canada Inc pay a dividend?
Molson Coors Canada Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Molson Coors Canada Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Oct 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPX-A use?
Our models discount Molson Coors Canada Inc at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Molson Coors Canada Inc that is -1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Molson Coors Canada Inc grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies -1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Molson Coors Canada Inc (-1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.78 %: that much free cash flow Molson Coors Canada Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Molson Coors Canada Inc it is C$121.00 per share (as of Oct 18, 2026), against a price of C$63.00. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Molson Coors Canada Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 18, 2026, TPX-A trades below its calculated fair value: price C$63.00, fair value C$121.00, a gap of about +92% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPX-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$63.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$121.00). For Molson Coors Canada Inc the two are C$58.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Molson Coors Canada Inc worth?
The market values Molson Coors Canada Inc at about C$11.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 18, 2026). Per share that is C$63.00; our models calculate a fair value of C$121.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPX-A?
Our models span a range for Molson Coors Canada Inc: cautious scenario C$77.91, base C$121.00, optimistic C$199.84 per share (as of Oct 18, 2026, price C$63.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TPX-A?
The PEG ratio of Molson Coors Canada Inc is 2.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Molson Coors Canada Inc (as of Oct 18, 2026): return on equity −6.2%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPX-A from its 52-week high?
Molson Coors Canada Inc trades at C$63.00, about 16% below its 52-week high of C$75.43 and 3% above the low of C$61.06 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$121.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Molson Coors Canada Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Molson Coors Canada Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 18, 2026: price C$63.00, calculated fair value C$121.00 (+92%), Quality Score 51/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPX-A calculated?
We run Molson Coors Canada Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$121.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Molson Coors Canada Inc currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was C$63.00. Our model-based fair value is C$121.00, about +92% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Molson Coors Canada Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$77.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (C$77.91 to C$199.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Molson Coors Canada Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The market capitalisation of Molson Coors Canada Inc is C$11.8B (≈ $8.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Molson Coors Canada Inc is 5.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
Earnings per share at Molson Coors Canada Inc are C$−16.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The dividend yield of Molson Coors Canada Inc is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The net margin of Molson Coors Canada Inc is −9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Molson Coors Canada Inc is −6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Molson Coors Canada Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
The operating margin of Molson Coors Canada Inc is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A)?
Revenue at Molson Coors Canada Inc is growing −8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Molson Coors Canada Inc (TPX-A) carry?
The net debt of Molson Coors Canada Inc is $5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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