Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $509M

Below-average quality, and screening another 100% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.40 – $21.31 · fair‑value band $0.0300 – $0.0500 · the $16.69 price screens above the $0.0400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) currently trades at $16.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0400, implying the stock looks roughly 99.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tejon Ranch Co generated revenue of $50.9M at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 15.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at $84.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.0300 (bear case) to $0.0500 (bull case); at $16.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -100%, TRC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($4.72) versus Earnings-Based ($0.0080). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Tejon Ranch Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified real estate development and agribusiness company. It operates through six segments: Real Estate - Commercial/Industrial; Multifamily; Real Estate - Resort/Residential; Mineral Resources; Farming; And Ranch Operations.

Full company description

Tejon Ranch Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified real estate development and agribusiness company. It operates through six segments: Real Estate - Commercial/Industrial; Multifamily; Real Estate - Resort/Residential; Mineral Resources; Farming; And Ranch Operations. The Real Estate - Commercial/Industrial segment engages in the planning and permitting of land for development; construction of infrastructure and building, pre-leased buildings, and buildings to be leased or sold; sale of land to third parties for their own development; and activities related to communications leases, a power plant lease, and landscape maintenance. This segment also leases land to various auto service stations with convenience stores, fast-food operations, a motel, an antique shop, and a post office; various microwave repeater locations, radio and cellular transmitter sites, and fiber optic cable routes; and package of land for an electric power plant. The Multifamily segment engages in development, leasing, and long-term ownership of residential rental communities. The Real Estate - Resort/Residential segment engages in land entitlement, planning, pre-construction engineering, stewardship, and conservation activities. The Mineral Resources segment includes oil and gas royalties, rock and aggregate royalties, and royalties from a cement operation leased to National Cement Company of California, Inc.; and the management of water assets and infrastructure projects. The Farming segment farms, produces, and sells wine grapes, almonds, pistachios, hay, and olives. The Ranch Operations segment includes grazing lease and game management, and land maintenance activities, as well as ancillary land uses comprising filming; and guided game hunts. Tejon Ranch Co. was founded in 1843 and is based in Lebec, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tejon Ranch Co reported revenue of $49.6M in FY2025 versus $55.6M in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $75.0K in FY2025, compounding −65.6%/yr from FY2021.

TRC screens 100% overvalued. Compare with CITIC Limited →

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 370 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.