Track Group Inc (TRCK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Track Group Inc $1.32, price $0.46, upside +187.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0700 – $3.87 · fair‑value band $0.7600 – $1.88 · the $0.4600 price screens below the $1.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Track Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets location tracking devices in the United States, Latin America, and internationally.
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Track Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets location tracking devices in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. The company offers ReliAlert XC4, a GPS monitoring device; and ReliAlert XC 3, which enables agencies to track offender movements and communicate directly with offenders in real-time through on-board two/three-way voice communication technology. It also provides IntelliTrack, a secure state of the art device-agnostic platform; IntelliTrack Mobile, a mobile application of the Intellitrack software is available for Android and iOS devices; TrackerPAL, a cloud-based monitoring system; TrackerPAL Mobile, a mobile application of the TrackerPAL software for Android and iOS devices; data analytics services; and BACtrack, a smartphone-based remote alcohol monitoring system. In addition, the company offers Empower smartphone application that provides victim and survivor support by creating a mobile geo-zone around a survivor of domestic abuse and communicates with the offender's tracking device; Socrates 360, a platform that offers various content and service; SecureCuff steel bands that provide extreme cut-resistance and includes the same fiber-optic technology as the standard strap for tampering notification; and RF Beacon, a self-contained and short-range transmitting station that provides a radio frequency signal communicating with assigned offender GPS devices, as well as product support services. Further, the company develops and sells various related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and monitoring applications. The company was formerly known as SecureAlert, Inc. and changed its name to Track Group, Inc. in May 2015. Track Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Naperville, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Track Group Inc (TRCK) currently trades at $0.4600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.32, implying the stock looks roughly 65.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 5 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.7600 (bear) to $1.88 (bull), the price of $0.4600 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Track Group Inc reported revenue of $35.2M in FY2025 versus $39.7M in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $33.5M · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 0.92 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin −5.3% · Return on equity −406% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 171% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 187%, TRCK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7600Fair Value $1.32Bull $1.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.13/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.1% (2020) → 3.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+187.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)36· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Track Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRCK
Frequently asked questions
Is Track Group Inc (TRCK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.32 versus a price of $0.4600, about +187% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRCK?
Our model-based fair value for Track Group Inc is $1.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4600.
What is the quality score of TRCK?
Track Group Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7600, optimistic scenario $1.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Track Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.32, about +187% upside versus a price of $0.4600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.7600, optimistic scenario $1.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Track Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $36.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Track Group Inc it is $1.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $0.4600. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Track Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TRCK trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.4600, fair value $1.32, a gap of about +187% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRCK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.32). For Track Group Inc the two are $0.8600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Track Group Inc worth?
The market values Track Group Inc at about $33.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $0.4600; our models calculate a fair value of $1.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRCK?
Our models span a range for Track Group Inc: cautious scenario $0.7600, base $1.32, optimistic $1.88 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $0.4600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRCK?
Track Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.32 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Track Group Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRCK from its 52-week high?
Track Group Inc trades at $0.4600, about 43% below its 52-week high of $0.8100 and 171% above the low of $0.1700 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Track Group Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Coherent Corp, Garmin Ltd, Chroma ATE Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Track Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $0.4600, calculated fair value $1.32 (+187%), Quality Score 37/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRCK calculated?
We run Track Group Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Track Group Inc currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.4600. Our model-based fair value is $1.32, about +187% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Track Group Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.7600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.7600 to $1.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Track Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
The market capitalisation of Track Group Inc is $33.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Track Group Inc is 0.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Earnings per share at Track Group Inc are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
The net margin of Track Group Inc is −5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Track Group Inc is −406% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Track Group Inc is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
The operating margin of Track Group Inc is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Revenue at Track Group Inc is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Track Group Inc (TRCK)?
Earnings per share at Track Group Inc are growing −98.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Track Group Inc (TRCK) generate?
The free cash flow of Track Group Inc is −$812K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Track Group Inc (TRCK) carry?
The net debt of Track Group Inc is $38.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026