Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA stock €6.12, price €9.51, upside -35.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.95 – €10.37 · fair‑value band €3.67 – €8.75 · the €9.51 price screens above the €6.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Terna S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides electricity transmission and dispatching services in Italy, other Euro-area countries, and internationally. It operates through Regulated, Non-Regulated, and International segments.
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The company is involved in the design, construction, management, development, operation, and maintenance of national transmission grid; dispatching and metering; and construction of storage systems.
It also supplies transformers and cables; provides energy and connectivity services; and installs and operates interconnecting lines.
In addition, the company designs, produces, commercializes, and repairs power transformers for electricity transmission and distribution grids; industrial transformers for the steel and metals industries; special transformers for convertors used in electrochemical production; manufactures and sells marine and terrestrial cables; develops renewable energy projects; and undertakes private interconnector projects.
The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN) currently trades at €9.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.12, 35.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €9.16 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the €9.51 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €1.51, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €3.67 (bear) to €8.75 (bull), the price of €9.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA reported revenue of €4.0B in FY2025 versus €2.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €19.1B Large · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 5.08 · EPS (TTM) €0.5100 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 26.4% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −36%, TRN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.67Fair Value €6.12Bull€8.75
Price €9.51 · Upside -35.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0935 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.2% vs 6.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 44%
AI conclusion: Stable margins support the regulated transmission operations amid rising data center demand, but limited pricing power and heavy investment needs result in negative free cash flow and high leverage.
Main risk: Capital access and approvals may create bottlenecks that hinder the scale of required investment in substations and grid connections for the regulated transmission business.
Terna has begun the authorization process for a new substation and grid connections to power upcoming data centers northwest of Milan. This underscores rising electricity demand from tech infrastructure on top of renewable integration needs in its regulated transmission business. Will the allowed returns support the scale of investment required, or will capital access and approvals create bottlenecks first?
Compare Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−35.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)26.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)45.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.6× · Pricier than median
P/B2.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.08× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.0× · Pricier than median
PEG2.09× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)27· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRN.MI
Frequently asked questions
Is Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.12 versus a price of €9.51, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRN?
Our model-based fair value for Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is €6.12 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.51.
What is the quality score of TRN?
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.12 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.67, optimistic scenario €8.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.12, about −36% upside versus a price of €9.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.67, optimistic scenario €8.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA pay a dividend?
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 4.17% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA it is €6.12 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of €9.51. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, TRN trades above its calculated fair value: price €9.51, fair value €6.12, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.12). For Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA the two are €3.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA worth?
The market values Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA at about €19.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is €9.51; our models calculate a fair value of €6.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRN?
Our models span a range for Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA: cautious scenario €3.67, base €6.12, optimistic €8.75 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price €9.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRN?
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.8, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TRN?
The PEG ratio of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 13.8%, debt of 1.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRN from its 52-week high?
Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA trades at €9.51, about 8% below its 52-week high of €10.37 and 12% above the low of €8.48 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price €9.51, calculated fair value €6.12 (−36%), Quality Score 46/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRN calculated?
We run Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €9.51. Our model-based fair value is €6.12, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€8.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€3.67 to €8.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN) come from?
Earnings per share at Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The market capitalisation of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is €19.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 5.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Earnings per share at Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA are €0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The dividend yield of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 4.2% (payout 77.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The net margin of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 26.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
The operating margin of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Revenue at Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN)?
Earnings per share at Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA are growing +0.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN) generate?
The free cash flow of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is −€318M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA (TRN) carry?
The net debt of Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA is €11.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026