Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toray Industries Inc stock $13.28, price $15.04, upside -11.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.26 – $17.25 · fair‑value band $8.45 – $18.91 · the $15.04 price screens above the $13.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Toray Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, processes, and sells fibers and textiles, performance chemicals, carbon fiber composite materials, environment and engineering products, and life science products in Japan, China, North America, Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers filament yarns, staple fibers, and spun yarns, as well as woven and knitted fabrics of nylon, polyester, acrylics, and others; non-woven fabrics; ultra-microfiber non-woven fibers; and apparel products.
It also provides nylon, ABS, PBT, PPS, and other resins and molded products; polyolefin foam products; polyester, polyethylene, polypropylene, and other films; processed film products; raw materials for synthetic fibers and other plastics; fine chemicals; electronic and information materials; and graphic materials.
In addition, the company offers carbon fibers, carbon fiber composite materials, and molded products; analysis, physical evaluation, research, and other services; and pharmaceuticals, medical devices, etc.
Further, it provides engineering services; condominiums; industrial equipment and machinery; water treatment membranes and related equipment; and materials for housing, building, and civil engineering applications.
Additionally, it offers TORAYVINO, a household water purifier; Toraysee, a cleaning cloth made with ultra-microfiber; 3D-Gene, a high-sensitivity DNA chip; materials and solutions for automobiles; and semiconductors combined support for materials, equipment, and analysis, as well as provides services, including design, procurement, and construction of factory building, air conditioning, production equipment, and utilities right.
It offers its products through & +, Ultrasuede, Ecsaine, senbism, LIVMOA, hitoe, 3DeFX+, and TORAIN brand names. The company was formerly known as Toyo Rayon Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Toray Industries, Inc. in 1970.
Toray Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) currently trades at $15.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.28, 11.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.23 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $15.04 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.25, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.45 (bear) to $18.91 (bull), the price of $15.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Toray Industries Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥2.2T in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥84.3B in FY2026, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $11.3B Large · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) $0.8200 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −12%, TRYIY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.45Fair Value $13.28Bull$18.91
Price $15.04 · Upside -11.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4628 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 0.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.3% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Low margins and ROE highlight a limited moat in the competitive textile sector as the main weakness, while the solvent-based recycling technology provides the key strength in advanced applications.
Main risk: Commoditized sector pressure in textiles threatens to further compress the company's already low margins and returns.
Toray has developed what it calls the first solvent-based technology to recover high-performance PPS from waste while preserving the polymer itself rather than breaking it down. The approach could lower emissions compared with virgin production and targets commercial supply around 2030 with government-backed scale-up work. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so will this circular-materials push strengthen resilience in advanced applications or mainly expose the long timeline to meaningful impact?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.28 versus a price of $15.04, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRYIY?
Our model-based fair value for Toray Industries Inc ADR is $13.28 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.04.
What is the quality score of TRYIY?
Toray Industries Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.28 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.45, optimistic scenario $18.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toray Industries Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.28, about −12% upside versus a price of $15.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.45, optimistic scenario $18.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Toray Industries Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Toray Industries Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Toray Industries Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.63% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toray Industries Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRYIY use?
Our models discount Toray Industries Inc ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toray Industries Inc ADR that is +14.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toray Industries Inc ADR grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toray Industries Inc ADR (+14.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.90 %: that much free cash flow Toray Industries Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toray Industries Inc ADR it is $13.28 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $15.04. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toray Industries Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, TRYIY trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.04, fair value $13.28, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRYIY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.28). For Toray Industries Inc ADR the two are $1.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toray Industries Inc ADR worth?
The market values Toray Industries Inc ADR at about $11.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $15.04; our models calculate a fair value of $13.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRYIY?
Our models span a range for Toray Industries Inc ADR: cautious scenario $8.45, base $13.28, optimistic $18.91 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $15.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRYIY?
Toray Industries Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toray Industries Inc ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRYIY from its 52-week high?
Toray Industries Inc ADR trades at $15.04, about 13% below its 52-week high of $17.25 and 28% above the low of $11.77 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toray Industries Inc ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tongkun Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, Zhejiang Orient Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toray Industries Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $15.04, calculated fair value $13.28 (−12%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRYIY calculated?
We run Toray Industries Inc ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Toray Industries Inc ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $15.04. Our model-based fair value is $13.28, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toray Industries Inc ADR right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.45 to $18.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) come from?
Earnings per share at Toray Industries Inc ADR grew −3.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toray Industries Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The market capitalisation of Toray Industries Inc ADR is $11.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toray Industries Inc ADR is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Earnings per share at Toray Industries Inc ADR are $0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The dividend yield of Toray Industries Inc ADR is 1.6% (payout 29.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The net margin of Toray Industries Inc ADR is 3.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toray Industries Inc ADR is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toray Industries Inc ADR is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
The operating margin of Toray Industries Inc ADR is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Revenue at Toray Industries Inc ADR is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY)?
Earnings per share at Toray Industries Inc ADR are growing +92.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toray Industries Inc (TRYIY) carry?
The net debt of Toray Industries Inc ADR is ¥643B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026