Tesco PLC (TSCDY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $37.1B
Tesco PLC
TSCDY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $23.49 to $24.04 (+2.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 24% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from $17.35 (bear) to $30.05 (bull), base $24.04. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 67/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.67 – $20.08 · fair‑value band $17.35 – $30.05 · the $19.35 price screens below the $24.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Tesco PLC (TSCDY) currently trades at $19.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.04, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tesco PLC generated revenue of $73.7B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at $12.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.35 (bear case) to $30.05 (bull case); at $19.35, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at 24%, TSCDY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($19.72) versus Asset-Based ($3.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. The company offers grocery products through its stores, as well as online. It is also involved in the food and drink wholesaling activities.
Full company description
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. The company offers grocery products through its stores, as well as online. It is also involved in the food and drink wholesaling activities. In addition, the company provides mobile virtual network operating services, as well as insurance products, such as for home, travel, pet, and car insurance products. Further, the company operates a network of convenience stores; and offers AI-enabled science, software, and trusted advice; and consultancy services. Tesco PLC was founded in 1919 and is based in Welwyn Garden City, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Tesco PLC reported revenue of $73.3B in FY2026 versus $61.3B in FY2022, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2026, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.38 SGD | +26% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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