True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust $16.08, price $6.43, upside +150.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.55 – $26.24 · fair‑value band $5.08 – $33.26 · the $6.43 price screens below the $16.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust.
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True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust. The REIT currently owns and operates a portfolio of 37 commercial properties consisting of approximately 4.4 million square feet in urban and select strategic secondary markets across Canada focusing on long term leases with government and credit rated tenants. The REIT is focused on growing its portfolio principally through acquisitions across Canada and such other jurisdictions where opportunities exist. True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust was incorporated in 2012 in Ontario, Canada.
Stock analysis
True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) currently trades at $6.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.08, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $41.67 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the $6.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.13, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.08 (bear) to $33.26 (bull), the price of $6.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust reported revenue of C$130M in FY2025 versus C$139M in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −C$32.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $92.6M · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $−1.64 · Dividend yield 10.7% · Net margin −25.0% · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin 41.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 150%, TUERF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.08Fair Value $16.08Bull $33.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
57.6% (2018) → 50.6% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price.
Compare True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+150.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−25.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)41.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.15× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TUERF
Frequently asked questions
Is True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.08 versus a price of $6.43, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TUERF?
Our model-based fair value for True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is $16.08 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.43.
What is the quality score of TUERF?
True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.08 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.08, optimistic scenario $33.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.08, about +150% upside versus a price of $6.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.08, optimistic scenario $33.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$129M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust pay a dividend?
True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +18.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.4 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TUERF use?
Our models discount True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust that is +18.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust grew -1.4 % a year. The price currently implies +18.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (+18.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.58 %: that much free cash flow True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust it is $16.08 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $6.43. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TUERF trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.43, fair value $16.08, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TUERF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.08). For True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust the two are $9.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust worth?
The market values True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust at about $92.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $6.43; our models calculate a fair value of $16.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TUERF?
Our models span a range for True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust: cautious scenario $5.08, base $16.08, optimistic $33.26 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $6.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
Balance-sheet figures for True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −8.3%, debt of 1.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TUERF from its 52-week high?
True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust trades at $6.43, at its 52-week high of $6.43 and 10% above the low of $5.85 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $6.43, calculated fair value $16.08 (+150%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TUERF calculated?
We run True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $6.43. Our model-based fair value is $16.08, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.08 to $33.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) come from?
Earnings per share at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust grew −5.2 % a year from 2013 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.4 %, EBIT margin +0.3 %, tax rate −3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The market capitalisation of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is $92.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
Earnings per share at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust are $−1.64. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The dividend yield of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is 10.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The net margin of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is −25.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
The operating margin of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
Revenue at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is growing −4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF)?
Earnings per share at True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust are growing −5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (TUERF) carry?
The net debt of True North Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is C$725M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 28, 2026