SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD stock S$4.29, price S$5.85, upside -26.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?No
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.55 SGD – 7.55 SGD · fair‑value band 3.63 SGD – 5.79 SGD · the 5.85 SGD price screens above the 4.29 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Sembcorp Industries Ltd, an investment holding company, engages in providing industrial and urban solutions in Singapore, China, India, Vietnam, the UK, Oman, Rest of Middle East and Rest of Asia, and internationally.
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The company operates through five segments: Gas and Related Services, Renewables, Integrated Urban Solutions, Decarbonisation Solutions, and Other Businesses and Corporate.
The Gas and Related Service segment engages in the sale of energy molecules, including natural gas, steam, and electricity from various fossil fuels, such as natural gas; and water products.
The Renewables segment provides electricity from solar and wind resources and energy storage solutions, as well as system services that support integration of renewables into grid.
This segment also includes the development and provision of installation, operation, and maintenance of solar, wind, and energy storage assets.
The Integrated Urban Solutions segment develops large-scale integrated urban and integrated townships, such as industrial parks, business, commercial and residential spaces, and production and reclamation of water and industrial wastewater treatment, as well as solid waste management and waste-to-resource solutions.
The Decarbonisation Solutions segment trades in environmental attributes, green hydrogen and ammonia, and power, as well as engages in carbon capture, utilization, and storage business.
The Other Businesses and Corporate segment engages in the construction and minting activities; and insurance and financial services. The company was formerly known as Minaret Limited and changed its name to Sembcorp Industries Ltd in July 1998.
Sembcorp Industries Ltd was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96) currently trades at 5.85 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.29 SGD, 26.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 8.78 SGD per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the 5.85 SGD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 0.8100 SGD, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 3.63 SGD (bear) to 5.79 SGD (bull), the price of 5.85 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD reported revenue of 5.8B SGD in FY2025 versus 7.8B SGD in FY2021, a compound −7.1%/yr. Reported net income was 984M SGD in FY2025, compounding +37.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 10.4B SGD (≈ $8.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) 0.3300 SGD · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −27%, U96 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear3.63 SGDFair Value 4.29 SGDBull5.79 SGD
Price 5.85 SGD · Upside -26.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0496 SGD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+34.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.3% vs 10.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.7%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.6% a year for the price and +23.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (71 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Return on assets5.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.57× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow50.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.2× · Pricier than median
PEG2.60× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)45· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)29· sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)92· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.29 SGD versus a price of 5.85 SGD, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of U96?
Our model-based fair value for SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 4.29 SGD (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5.85 SGD.
What is the quality score of U96?
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.29 SGD (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.63 SGD, optimistic scenario 5.79 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.29 SGD, about −27% upside versus a price of 5.85 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.63 SGD, optimistic scenario 5.79 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.6B SGD (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD pay a dividend?
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD currently shows a dividend yield of 4.62% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD would have to grow free cash flow by +33.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of U96 use?
Our models discount SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD that is +33.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies +33.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (+33.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.00 %: that much free cash flow SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD it is 4.29 SGD per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of 5.85 SGD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, U96 trades above its calculated fair value: price 5.85 SGD, fair value 4.29 SGD, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of U96?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5.85 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.29 SGD). For SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD the two are 1.56 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD worth?
The market values SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD at about 10.4B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is 5.85 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 4.29 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about U96?
Our models span a range for SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD: cautious scenario 3.63 SGD, base 4.29 SGD, optimistic 5.79 SGD per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price 5.85 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of U96?
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.29 SGD is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.3 (reported for FY2025: 10.6). Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of U96?
The PEG ratio of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 2.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
Balance-sheet figures for SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is U96 from its 52-week high?
SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD trades at 5.85 SGD, about 16% below its 52-week high of 6.93 SGD and 11% above the low of 5.27 SGD (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.29 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price 5.85 SGD, calculated fair value 4.29 SGD (−27%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of U96 calculated?
We run SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.29 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 5.85 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 4.29 SGD, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The market capitalisation of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 10.4B SGD (≈ $8.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 1.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
Earnings per share at SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD are 0.3300 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The dividend yield of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 4.6% (payout 94.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 81.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The net margin of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 9.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
The operating margin of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
Revenue at SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is growing +28.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96)?
Earnings per share at SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD are growing −71.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (U96) carry?
The net debt of SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD is 7.8B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 37.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 23, 2026