UBS Group AG (UBS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $181B · ISIN CH0244767585
What is UBS Group AG really worth?
UBS Group AG
UBS · US
A solid business, but trading 103% above our fair value of $27.22.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of UBS Group AG is $27.22 per share against a price of $55.38, so the fair value sits 51% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $24.43 to $27.22 (+11.4%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.18 – $55.72 · fair‑value band $20.41 – $34.02 · the $55.38 price screens above the $27.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
UBS Group AG (UBS) currently trades at $55.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.22, implying the stock looks roughly 103.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $24.43 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $55.38 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.22, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, UBS Group AG generated revenue of $51.3B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 13.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $146B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.41 (bear case) to $34.02 (bull case); at $55.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −51%, UBS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.15 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($24.43) versus Dividend Discount ($8.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy.
Full company description
UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy. The Global Wealth Management segment offers financial services, advice, and solutions; investment management, estate planning, and corporate advice services; and wealth management and banking products and services to private wealth and institutional customers. Its Personal & Corporate Banking segment provides banking, retirement, financing, investments, and strategic transactions to private, corporate, and institutional customers through its branch network and digital channels in Switzerland. The Asset Management segment offers diversified asset management services. Its Investment Bank segment provides equities, foreign exchange, precious metals, research, advisory, and capital markets services to institutional, corporate, financial sponsor, and Global Wealth Management customers, as well as focused rates and credit platform. The company also offers lending products, such as securities-based lending, mortgages, structured products, and tailored solutions; collateralized lending residential and commercial real estate, primarily against securities, residential and commercial real estate, other real assets (such as ships and aircraft), private market and hedge fund interest; and unsecured lending. The company was formerly known as UBS AG and changed its name to UBS Group AG in December 2014. UBS Group AG was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UBS Group AG reported revenue of $59.1B in FY2025 versus $35.0B in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2B in FY2025, compounding −2.5%/yr from FY2021.
UBS screens 103% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- John Hall Joins UBS as Financial Advisor in Bellevue, WA
- Mason Cisney Alcon Wealth Management Group Joins UBS in Pueblo, CO
- UBS Hires Financial Advisor Team of Three in Bethesda, MD
- Update: Market Chatter: UBS Faces Fresh Questions from US Senate Over Credit Suisse Nazi-Linked Accounts
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $358.64 | $217.97 | −39% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $62.68 | $50.87 | −19% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.96 | ¥12.94 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
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