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UCAL Limited (UCALFUEL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · IN · Market cap ₹3.5B

UL UCAL Limited UCALFUEL · BSE
Price₹143.70
Fair Value₹20.36
Upside-85.8%
Quality54/100
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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Trades 606% ABOVE our fair value of ₹20.36
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.1 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.5% net margin · fiscal year 2023 0.1%
!Narrow moat 22/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.1 %/yr)
Loss over the last twelve months · -0.5% net margin · fiscal year 2023 0.1%
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Narrow moat 22/100
Evidence: Medium Range ₹14.34 – ₹25.69 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Share price +21.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹25.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

₹234.90 ₹81.10 Fair Value ₹20.36 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹81.10 – ₹234.90 · fair‑value band ₹14.34 – ₹25.69 · the ₹143.70 price screens above the ₹20.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

UCAL Limited (UCALFUEL) currently trades at ₹143.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹20.36, implying the stock looks roughly 85.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, UCAL Limited generated revenue of ₹8.1B at a net margin of -0.5%. Revenue declined 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. Net debt stands at ₹2.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹14.34 (bear case) to ₹25.69 (bull case); at ₹143.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -86%, UCALFUEL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ₹172.89 ₹245.11 ₹338.61 80
Residual Income ₹117.49 ₹108.24 ₹71.21 76
Rev-Margin DCF ₹92.51 ₹137.24 ₹185.75 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ₹167.48 ₹244.97 ₹349.46 38
Owner Earnings ₹5.37 31
5Y Revenue Exit ₹92.51 ₹133.74 ₹182.44 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹172.74 ₹275.06 ₹387.93 41
5Y P/E Exit ₹49.62 ₹58.17 ₹65.34 38
10Y Revenue Exit ₹117.87 ₹159.19 ₹206.79 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ₹168.88 ₹252.11 ₹351.90 37
10Y P/E Exit ₹93.92 ₹109.51 ₹124.10 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹2.62 ₹5.79 ₹7.39 54
PEG = 1.0 ₹0.9300 ₹1.32 ₹1.72 46
EPV ₹11.95 ₹18.25 ₹23.69 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹17.57 ₹27.33 ₹37.70 70
DDM Multi-Stage ₹17.57 ₹25.07 ₹33.18 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹6.36 ₹8.48 ₹10.60 63
P/S Multiple ₹4.92 ₹6.55 ₹8.19 58
P/B Multiple ₹4.92 ₹6.55 ₹8.19 55
EV/EBIT ₹90.57 ₹130.08 ₹169.59 53
EV/EBITDA ₹205.83 ₹283.77 ₹361.70 54
EV/Revenue ₹51.94 ₹86.18 ₹120.42 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹88.94 ₹119.17 ₹177.87 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹172.89 ₹245.11 ₹338.61 80
Rev-Margin DCF ₹92.51 ₹137.24 ₹185.75 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹117.49 ₹108.24 ₹71.21 76
ROIC Compounder ₹11.95 ₹18.25 ₹23.69 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹4.72 ₹6.74 ₹8.76 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (₹159.19) versus Earnings-Based (₹5.79). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 368.5
P/S ratio 0.43 TTM
Net margin -0.5% TTM
Return on equity 0.2% TTM
Return on assets 1.6% TTM
Operating margin 1.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
EPS (TTM) ₹0.3900
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ₹8.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.6% 3y avg +4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -91.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ₹431M FY2023
Net debt ₹2.0B FY2023 · ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

UCAL Limited provides fuel management systems for the automotive sector in India. The company offers multi point fuel injection parts, including throttle body and fuel rail assemblies, high-pressure fuel filters, and pressure regulators and pulsation dampers; carburetors; and emission control products, such as positive crankcase ventilation valves and …

Full company description

UCAL Limited provides fuel management systems for the automotive sector in India. The company offers multi point fuel injection parts, including throttle body and fuel rail assemblies, high-pressure fuel filters, and pressure regulators and pulsation dampers; carburetors; and emission control products, such as positive crankcase ventilation valves and intake manifolds for four-wheelers. It also provides secondary air valves; and EMS system products that include throttle bodies, fuel pumps, air compressors, and fuel rail assemblies for two/three-wheelers. In addition, it offers electronic solenoid fuel pumps for gensets; oil, vacuum, and water pump assemblies, as well as piston-driven, high-pressure impeller driven, and electronic solenoids; high pressure die casting products, which comprise air intake and steering systems, turbochargers, and emission control and other products; and precision machined products, such as shaft second clutches, housing spring and body injectors, and transmission and rocker arm shafts. The company also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Ucal Fuel Systems Limited and changed its name to UCAL Limited in June 2023. UCAL Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

UCAL Limited reported revenue of ₹8.2B in FY2023 versus ₹8.7B in FY2019, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹8.5M in FY2023, compounding −63.1%/yr from FY2019.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
₹8.2B
Latest YoY
+6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.1%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−54.9% (-54.9 + 0.0)
Revenue −1.4%/yr
FY19 ₹8.7B
FY20 ₹7.3B
FY21 ₹6.8B
FY22 ₹7.7B
FY23 ₹8.2B
Net income −63.1%/yr
FY19 ₹458M
FY20 ₹212M
FY21 ₹289M
FY22 ₹349M
FY23 ₹8.5M

UCALFUEL screens 86% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UCAL Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UCALFUEL

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 643 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −86% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.16× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 368.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY $92.05 $47.50 -48%
AutoZone, Inc AZO $3,019 $2,287 -24%
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 511,000 KRW 643,909 KRW +26%
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥56.76 ¥84.47 +49%
Knorr-Bremse AG KBX €100.50 €72.88 -27%
Magna International Inc MGA $69.71 $68.17 -2%
Genuine Parts Company GPC $131.89 $58.07 -56%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹169.58 ₹80.63 -52%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹48,700 ₹11,534 -76%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥50.30 ¥28.28 -44%

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Frequently asked questions

Is UCAL Limited (UCALFUEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹20.36 versus a price of ₹143.70, about −86% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UCALFUEL?
Our model-based fair value for UCAL Limited is ₹20.36 (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹143.70.
What is the quality score of UCALFUEL?
UCAL Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of UCAL Limited (UCALFUEL)?
UCAL Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹8.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UCALFUEL?
The net profit margin of UCAL Limited is about -0.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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