AutoZone, Inc (AZO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $50.2B
AutoZone, Inc
AZO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $2,326 to $2,332 (+0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($1,513 to $3,144) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1,375 – $4,355 · fair‑value band $1,513 – $3,144 · the $3,070 price screens above the $2,332 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
AutoZone, Inc (AZO) currently trades at $3,070, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2,332, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AutoZone, Inc generated revenue of $20.0B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $12.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 21.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1,513 (bear case) to $3,144 (bull case); at $3,070, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -24%, AZO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($2,841) versus Dividend Discount ($570.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AutoZone, Inc. operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. The company offers a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products.
Full company description
AutoZone, Inc. operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. The company offers a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. It also provides A/C compressors, batteries and accessories, bearings, belts and hoses, calipers, chassis, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting products, mufflers, radiators, starters and alternators, thermostats, and water pumps, as well as tire repairs. In addition, the company provides maintenance products, such as antifreeze and windshield washer fluids; brake drums, rotors, shoes, and pads; brake and power steering fluids, and oil and fuel additives; oil and transmission fluids; oil, cabin, air, fuel, and transmission filters; oxygen sensors; paints and accessories; refrigerants and accessories; shock absorbers and struts; spark plugs and wires; and windshield wipers. Further, it offers air fresheners, cell phone accessories, drinks and snacks, floor mats and seat covers, interior and exterior accessories, mirrors, performance products, protectants and cleaners, sealants and adhesives, steering wheel covers, tools, vehicle entertainment systems, and wash and wax products, as well as towing services. Additionally, the company provides a sales program that offers commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products; sells automotive diagnostic, repair, collision, and shop management information software under the ALLDATA brand through alldata.com; Duralast branded products through duralastparts.com; and automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products through autozone.com. AutoZone, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AutoZone, Inc reported revenue of $18.9B in FY2025 versus $14.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +3.6%/yr from FY2021.
AZO screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AutoZone (AZO) Could Be 24% Undervalued As International Expansion Comes Into Focus
- AutoZone (AZO) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors
- AutoZone Earnings Preview: What to Expect
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 641 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹660.10 | ₹207.06 | -69% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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