O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of O’Reilly Automotive Inc stock $48.66, price $91.49, that is 46.8% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.17 – $107.82 · fair‑value band $31.06 – $76.61 · the $91.49 price screens above the $48.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.
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The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories.
It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment.
In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials.
It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks.
It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
Stock analysis
O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) currently trades at $91.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.66, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $58.93 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the $91.49 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $29.43, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $31.06 (bear) to $76.61 (bull), the price of $91.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
O’Reilly Automotive Inc reported revenue of $17.8B in FY2025 versus $13.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $75.8B Large · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 4.08 · EPS (TTM) $3.15 · Net margin 14.3% · Return on equity 58.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.8% · Operating margin 20.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −47%, ORLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$31.06Fair Value $48.66Bull$76.61
Price $91.49 · Downside -46.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.1M and none bought.
SaleLarry Dean GraySVP OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT7,750 shares at $90.23$699,244Nov 3, 2026
SaleThomas HendricksonDirector2× since May 29, 2026: 2,200 shares, avg. $88.10$193,814Aug 28, 2026
SaleMaria SastreDirector2× since Feb 27, 2026: 3,000 shares, avg. $92.13$276,380Aug 12, 2026
SaleChristopher Andrew ManciniSVP OF PROF SALES & STORE OPS2× since Nov 26, 2025: 5,355 shares, avg. $96.65$517,585Aug 12, 2026
SaleRobert Allen DumasSVP OF EASTERN STORE OPS/SALES84,600 shares at $92.60$7.8MMay 20, 2026
SaleJohn Raymond MurphyDirector2,595 shares at $88.67$230,099May 18, 2026
SaleBrad W BeckhamCEO13,635 shares at $95.00$1.3MMay 8, 2026
SalePhilip M HopperSVP OF REAL ESTATE & EXPANSION2× since Nov 26, 2025: 7,200 shares, avg. $97.83$704,395May 7, 2026
SaleJeremy Adam FletcherEVP & CFO3,795 shares at $100.00$379,500Nov 18, 2025
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 12.5% / −10.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 20%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 1.65 per share, median 9.95 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.2% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat arises from the store network and proprietary brands that support margins, while high leverage with negative equity and low innovation form the central weakness.
Main risk: Amazon’s growing auto parts sales and logistics network could draw DIY buyers to cheaper or more convenient online options and pressure margins on standard parts.
Bull case: O’Reilly could use its dense store network and proprietary brands to keep professional customers and offer same-day service that online rivals struggle to match.
Bear case: If Amazon captures significant DIY volume, the company might see slower growth in that segment and need to rely more heavily on professional sales amid ongoing supplier risks.
O'Reilly Automotive has expanded to more than 6,600 stores while lifting its proprietary brands above 55 percent of sales. That mix helps protect margins even as professional sales outpace do-it-yourself demand. Our models see the shares as overvalued after a long run of steady growth. Will the edge from owned brands and new locations outweigh softer consumer spending and higher multiples at peers?
Compare O’Reilly Automotive Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−46.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets15.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.0× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.66 versus a price of $91.49, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORLY?
Our model-based fair value for O’Reilly Automotive Inc is $48.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $91.49.
What is the quality score of ORLY?
O’Reilly Automotive Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.06, optimistic scenario $76.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the O’Reilly Automotive Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.66, about 47% lower versus a price of $91.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $31.06, optimistic scenario $76.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
O’Reilly Automotive Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, O’Reilly Automotive Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +23.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORLY use?
Our models discount O’Reilly Automotive Inc at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For O’Reilly Automotive Inc that is +23.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at O’Reilly Automotive Inc grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies +23.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into O’Reilly Automotive Inc (+23.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.10 %: that much free cash flow O’Reilly Automotive Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For O’Reilly Automotive Inc it is $48.66 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $91.49. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is O’Reilly Automotive Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ORLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $91.49, fair value $48.66, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($91.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.66). For O’Reilly Automotive Inc the two are $42.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is O’Reilly Automotive Inc worth?
The market values O’Reilly Automotive Inc at about $75.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $91.49; our models calculate a fair value of $48.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORLY?
Our models span a range for O’Reilly Automotive Inc: cautious scenario $31.06, base $48.66, optimistic $76.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $91.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORLY?
O’Reilly Automotive Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ORLY?
The PEG ratio of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for O’Reilly Automotive Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORLY from its 52-week high?
O’Reilly Automotive Inc trades at $91.49, about 10% below its 52-week high of $101.70 and 11% above the low of $82.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to O’Reilly Automotive Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Samvardhana Motherson International Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is O’Reilly Automotive Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $91.49, calculated fair value $48.66 (−47%), Quality Score 70/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORLY calculated?
We run O’Reilly Automotive Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. O’Reilly Automotive Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $91.49. Our model-based fair value is $48.66, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with O’Reilly Automotive Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($76.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($31.06 to $76.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) come from?
Earnings per share at O’Reilly Automotive Inc grew +6.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of O’Reilly Automotive Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The market capitalisation of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is $75.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is 4.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
Earnings per share at O’Reilly Automotive Inc are $3.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The net margin of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is 14.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is 58.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is 22.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
The operating margin of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
Revenue at O’Reilly Automotive Inc is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)?
Earnings per share at O’Reilly Automotive Inc are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) carry?
The net debt of O’Reilly Automotive Inc is $8.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026