United Fire Group (UFCS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.3B
United Fire Group
UFCS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +4.5% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.51 – $54.93 · fair‑value band $44.92 – $74.86 · the $54.47 price screens below the $59.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
United Fire Group (UFCS) currently trades at $54.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.89, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, United Fire Group generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $10.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $44.92 (bear case) to $74.86 (bull case); at $54.47, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 10%, UFCS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($51.36) versus Dividend Discount ($7.56). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States.
Full company description
United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. It provides property and casualty insurance, and surety bonds; and fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety to small business owners and middle market businesses operating in industries, such as construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. The company also offers marine specialty, professional liability, and earthquake coverages; specialty and surplus lines coverage; and reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through a network of independent agencies. United Fire Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
United Fire Group reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $118M in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- United Fire Group, Inc. announces its second quarter 2026 earnings call
- United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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