United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of United Fire Group Inc $39.52, price $53.43, upside -26.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.51 – $56.10 · fair‑value band $33.43 – $64.03 · the $53.43 price screens above the $39.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States.
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United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. It provides property and casualty insurance, and surety bonds; and fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety to small business owners and middle market businesses operating in industries, such as construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. The company also offers marine specialty, professional liability, and earthquake coverages; specialty and surplus lines coverage; and reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through a network of independent agencies. United Fire Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Stock analysis
United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) currently trades at $53.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.52, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $51.36 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $53.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.56, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $33.43 (bear) to $64.03 (bull), the price of $53.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
United Fire Group Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $118M in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 0.92 · EPS (TTM) $4.96 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −26%, UFCS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $33.43Fair Value $39.52Bull $64.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.14 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+19.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Fire Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UFCS
Frequently asked questions
Is United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.52 versus a price of $53.43, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UFCS?
Our model-based fair value for United Fire Group Inc is $39.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.43.
What is the quality score of UFCS?
United Fire Group Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $39.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.43, optimistic scenario $64.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Fire Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $39.52, about −26% upside versus a price of $53.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $33.43, optimistic scenario $64.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
United Fire Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does United Fire Group Inc pay a dividend?
United Fire Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, United Fire Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UFCS use?
Our models discount United Fire Group Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For United Fire Group Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at United Fire Group Inc grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into United Fire Group Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.68 %: that much free cash flow United Fire Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Fire Group Inc it is $39.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $53.43. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Fire Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, UFCS trades above its calculated fair value: price $53.43, fair value $39.52, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UFCS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($39.52). For United Fire Group Inc the two are $13.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Fire Group Inc worth?
The market values United Fire Group Inc at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $53.43; our models calculate a fair value of $39.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UFCS?
Our models span a range for United Fire Group Inc: cautious scenario $33.43, base $39.52, optimistic $64.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $53.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UFCS?
United Fire Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $39.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of UFCS?
The PEG ratio of United Fire Group Inc is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Fire Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UFCS from its 52-week high?
United Fire Group Inc trades at $53.43, about 5% below its 52-week high of $56.10 and 80% above the low of $29.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $39.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Fire Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Fire Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $53.43, calculated fair value $39.52 (−26%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UFCS calculated?
We run United Fire Group Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $39.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. United Fire Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $53.43. Our model-based fair value is $39.52, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Fire Group Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($33.43 to $64.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) come from?
Earnings per share at United Fire Group Inc grew +3.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of United Fire Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The market capitalisation of United Fire Group Inc is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Fire Group Inc is 0.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
Earnings per share at United Fire Group Inc are $4.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The dividend yield of United Fire Group Inc is 1.3% (payout 13.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The net margin of United Fire Group Inc is 8.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Fire Group Inc is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Fire Group Inc is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
The operating margin of United Fire Group Inc is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
Revenue at United Fire Group Inc is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)?
Earnings per share at United Fire Group Inc are growing +71.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) hold?
United Fire Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $10.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026