Canfor Corporation (CFP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$1.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from C$4.54 to C$9.08 (+100.0%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +17.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$14.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (C$3.42 to C$14.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$10.98 – C$34.43 · fair‑value band C$3.42 – C$14.76 · the C$15.77 price screens above the C$9.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Canfor Corporation (CFP) currently trades at C$15.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.08, implying the stock looks roughly 42.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canfor Corporation generated revenue of C$5.3B at a net margin of -15.9%. Revenue declined 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -29.9%. Net debt stands at C$799M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$3.42 (bear case) to C$14.76 (bull case); at C$15.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -42%, CFP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (C$14.31) versus Multiples (C$9.05). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Lumber, and Pulp and Paper segments.
Full company description
Canfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Lumber, and Pulp and Paper segments. The company manufactures and sells softwood lumber, pulp and paper products, remanufactured lumber products, engineered wood and other lumber-related products, wood pellets, and energy. The company was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canfor Corporation reported revenue of C$5.3B in FY2025 versus C$7.7B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was −C$797M in FY2025.
CFP screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $188.80 | $147.92 | -22% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$98.54 | C$51.55 | -48% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $85.93 | $108.78 | +27% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$78.93 | C$96.01 | +22% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $76.06 | $51.92 | -32% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹799.50 | ₹201.01 | -75% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥11.74 | ¥14.78 | +26% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.45 | C$6.43 | -52% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.05 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
| Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 | ¥21.99 | ¥2.52 | -89% |
Compare Canfor Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Canfor Corporation (CFP) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CFP?
What is the quality score of CFP?
What is the revenue of Canfor Corporation (CFP)?
What is the net profit margin of CFP?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Canfor Corporation and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.