Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Unicharm Corporation $5.05, price $6.11, upside -17.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Unicharm Corporation for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.22 – $44.84 · fair‑value band $3.79 – $6.31 · the $6.11 price screens above the $5.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Follow Unicharm in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Unicharm is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Unicharm Corporation engages in the manufacturing and sale of pet care and related products in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Personal Care, Pet Care, and Others segments. It offers wellness care, feminine care, baby and child care products, as well as food-packaging materials, etc.
Show more
Unicharm Corporation engages in the manufacturing and sale of pet care and related products in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Personal Care, Pet Care, and Others segments. It offers wellness care, feminine care, baby and child care products, as well as food-packaging materials, etc. The company also provides napkin-type incontinence pads, pants-type diapers, tape-type diapers, pants-type specialized urine pads, and tape-type specialized urine pads under the Lifree brand name; specialized liners for incontinence care under the Charm Nap brand name; fabric and facial masks under the Chorittai and Chokaiteki Mask brand name; Home care products under Wave brand; and kitchen paper towel under the Cook Up brand name. In addition, it offers pet food under the Pet Dog Genki, Pet Cat Genki, Grand Deli, Best Balance, Silver Spoon, Silver Plate, AllWell, and Physicalife brand names, as well as excrement cleanup sheets, disposable diapers, apparel-like absorption wear for excretion-care for dogs, and Deo-Sand series and Deo-Toilet system products for cats. Further, the company provides feminine care products including feminine napkins, tampons, sanitary shorts, and panty liners under the Sofy and Silcot names; and disposable baby diaper under the Moony, Mamy Poko, Trepanman, and Oyasuminman brands. Additionally, it is involved in recycling of disposable diapers, as well as offering products under RefF brand. Unicharm Corporation was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) currently trades at $6.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.05, 17.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.56 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $6.11 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.26, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.79 (bear) to $6.31 (bull), the price of $6.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Unicharm Corporation reported revenue of ¥946B in FY2025 versus ¥783B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥65.3B in FY2025, compounding −2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.7B · P/E ratio 29.1 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −17%, UNCHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.79Fair Value $5.05Bull $6.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.7% vs −6.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~11Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−11.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets5.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Unicharm Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNCHF
Frequently asked questions
Is Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.05 versus a price of $6.11, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNCHF?
Our model-based fair value for Unicharm Corporation is $5.05 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.11.
What is the quality score of UNCHF?
Unicharm Corporation has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.05 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.79, optimistic scenario $6.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Unicharm Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.05, about −17% upside versus a price of $6.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.79, optimistic scenario $6.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Unicharm Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥952B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Unicharm Corporation pay a dividend?
Unicharm Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Unicharm Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNCHF use?
Our models discount Unicharm Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Unicharm Corporation that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Unicharm Corporation grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Unicharm Corporation (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.10 %: that much free cash flow Unicharm Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Unicharm Corporation it is $5.05 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $6.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Unicharm Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, UNCHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.11, fair value $5.05, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNCHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.05). For Unicharm Corporation the two are $1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Unicharm Corporation worth?
The market values Unicharm Corporation at about $10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $6.11; our models calculate a fair value of $5.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNCHF?
Our models span a range for Unicharm Corporation: cautious scenario $3.79, base $5.05, optimistic $6.31 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $6.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UNCHF?
Unicharm Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.1 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
What is the PEG ratio of UNCHF?
The PEG ratio of Unicharm Corporation is 1.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Unicharm Corporation (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UNCHF from its 52-week high?
Unicharm Corporation trades at $6.11, about 17% below its 52-week high of $7.36 and 17% above the low of $5.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Unicharm Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Unicharm Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $6.11, calculated fair value $5.05 (−17%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNCHF calculated?
We run Unicharm Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Unicharm Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.11. Our model-based fair value is $5.05, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Unicharm Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) come from?
Earnings per share at Unicharm Corporation grew −2.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.0 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Unicharm Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The market capitalisation of Unicharm Corporation is $10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Unicharm Corporation is 2.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Earnings per share at Unicharm Corporation are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The dividend yield of Unicharm Corporation is 2.5% (payout 73.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The net margin of Unicharm Corporation is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Unicharm Corporation is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Unicharm Corporation is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
The operating margin of Unicharm Corporation is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Revenue at Unicharm Corporation is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF)?
Earnings per share at Unicharm Corporation are growing −19.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Unicharm Corporation (UNCHF) hold?
Unicharm Corporation holds more cash than debt, ¥242B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Unicharm Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts Unicharm Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026