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USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of USA Rare Earth, Inc. stock $4.89, price $7.92, that is 38.3% below the price, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

UR USA Rare Earth, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

USA Rare Earth, Inc.

USAR · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 38% below what the stock costs today.

Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $1.5M (6M)
Fair value $4.89 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 28/100
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −99.9 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/7)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$38.68 $5.75 Fair Value $4.89 Jul 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range $5.75 – $38.68 · fair‑value band $3.67 – $6.11 · the $7.92 price screens above the $4.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

USA Rare Earth, Inc. engages in mining, processing, and supplying rare earths and other critical minerals in the United States, Europe, and Asia. It primarily explores neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, gallium, hafnium, praseodymium, samarium, and other critical minerals.

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The company holds interests in the Round Top Mountain located near Sierra Blanca, Texas. It products are used in aerospace, defense, semiconductors, data centers, physical AI, energy, mobility, healthcare, and numerous industrial sectors.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. was founded in 2019 and is based in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Stock analysis

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) currently trades at $7.92, while our estimate is $4.89, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $3.67 (bear) to $6.11 (bull), the price of $7.92 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. reported revenue of $1.6M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$298M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.1B Mid · EPS (TTM) $−4.65 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Return on equity −44.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.8% (4-year average) · Operating margin −644% · Free cash flow −$86.3M · Net cash $357M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −38%, USAR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $3.67 Fair Value $4.89 Bull $6.11
Price $7.92 · Downside -38.3%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 3
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.5M and none bought.

  • SaleBarbara HumptonFormer Chief Executive Officer88,391 shares at $13.75$1.2MOct 2, 2026
  • SaleCarolyn TrabucoDirector13,000 shares at $22.77$296,010Jun 8, 2026
  • BuyMichael BlitzerDirector100,000 shares at $21.44$2.1MJan 29, 2026
  • BuyCarolyn TrabucoDirector1,300 shares at $22.60$29,380Jan 29, 2026

Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

USAR screens overvalued: fair value 38% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −38.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −42.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.24× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)5 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs USAR
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 57.00 SAR 64.24 SAR +13% vs USAR
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.25 ¥30.98 +10% vs USAR
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs USAR
Boliden AB BOL kr 515.20 kr 464.45 −10% vs USAR
BHP Group BHP A$60.39 A$47.47 −21% vs USAR
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.69 ¥25.57 −22% vs USAR
Korea Zinc Company 010130 967,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −33% vs USAR
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.71 ¥6.82 −50% vs USAR
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥40.90 ¥4.44 −89% vs USAR

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For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

USA Rare Earth, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "USA Rare Earth, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/USAR

Frequently asked questions

Is USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $4.89 versus a price of $7.92, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of USAR?
Our estimate for USA Rare Earth, Inc. is $4.89 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.92.
What is the quality score of USAR?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $4.89 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $3.67, optimistic scenario $6.11. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the USA Rare Earth, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $4.89, about 38% lower versus a price of $7.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.67, optimistic scenario $6.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. pay a dividend?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. has a dividend yield of 0.3%.
What is the intrinsic value of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For USA Rare Earth, Inc. it is $4.89 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $7.92.
Is USA Rare Earth, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, USAR trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.92, fair value $4.89, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of USAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.89). For USA Rare Earth, Inc. the two are $3.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is USA Rare Earth, Inc. worth?
The market values USA Rare Earth, Inc. at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $7.92; our models calculate a fair value of $4.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about USAR?
Our models span a range for USA Rare Earth, Inc.: cautious scenario $3.67, base $4.89, optimistic $6.11 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $7.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for USA Rare Earth, Inc. (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −44.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is USAR from its 52-week high?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. trades at $7.92, about 74% below its 52-week high of $30.70 and 7% above the low of $7.42 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to USA Rare Earth, Inc.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is USA Rare Earth, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $7.92, calculated fair value $4.89 (−38%), Quality Score 28/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. USA Rare Earth, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $7.92. Our estimate is $4.89, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with USA Rare Earth, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of USA Rare Earth, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
The market capitalisation of USA Rare Earth, Inc. is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
Earnings per share at USA Rare Earth, Inc. are $−4.65. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
The dividend yield of USA Rare Earth, Inc. is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of USA Rare Earth, Inc. is −44.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of USA Rare Earth, Inc. is −7.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)?
The operating margin of USA Rare Earth, Inc. is −644% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) generate?
The free cash flow of USA Rare Earth, Inc. is −$86.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) hold?
USA Rare Earth, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $357M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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