U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc (USPH) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.1B
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc
USPH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $43.07 to $21.77 (−49.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +13.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $58.57 – $119.87 · fair‑value band $16.33 – $27.22 · the $80.05 price screens above the $21.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc (USPH) currently trades at $80.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.77, implying the stock looks roughly 72.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc generated revenue of $788M at a net margin of 4.4%. Revenue grew 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at $390M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.33 (bear case) to $27.22 (bull case); at $80.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -73%, USPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($63.37) versus Earnings-Based ($11.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and manages outpatient physical therapy clinics. It operates through two segments, Physical Therapy Operations and Industrial Injury Prevention Services.
Full company description
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and manages outpatient physical therapy clinics. It operates through two segments, Physical Therapy Operations and Industrial Injury Prevention Services. The company provides pre-and post-operative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventative care, rehabilitation of injured workers, and neurological-related injuries. It offers industrial injury prevention services, including onsite injury prevention and rehabilitation, performance optimization, post-offer employment testing, functional capacity evaluations, and ergonomic assessments through physical therapists and specialized certified athletic trainers for Fortune 500 companies, and other clients comprising insurers and their contractors. U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc reported revenue of $781M in FY2025 versus $495M in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $15.1M in FY2025, compounding −14.2%/yr from FY2021.
USPH screens 73% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $378.85 | $554.93 | +46% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €41.73 | €32.15 | -23% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.58 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -44% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $194.91 | $338.05 | +73% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$36.01 | R$47.31 | +31% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $231.61 | $255.97 | +11% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,955 | ₹2,955 | -67% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $24.68 | $45.60 | +85% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.68 | ¥7.67 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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