U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. stock $17.16, price $99.49, that is 82.8% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $58.22 – $119.17 · fair‑value band $10.87 – $25.53 · the $99.49 price screens above the $17.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and manages outpatient physical therapy clinics. It operates through two segments, Physical Therapy Operations and Industrial Injury Prevention Services.
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The company provides pre-and post-operative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventative care, rehabilitation of injured workers, and neurological-related injuries.
It offers industrial injury prevention services, including onsite injury prevention and rehabilitation, performance optimization, post-offer employment testing, functional capacity evaluations, and ergonomic assessments through physical therapists and specialized certified athletic trainers for Fortune 500 companies, and other clients comprising insurers and their contractors.
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) currently trades at $99.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.16, 83% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $19.73 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $99.49 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.96, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.87 (bear) to $25.53 (bull), the price of $99.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. reported revenue of $781M in FY2025 versus $495M in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $15.1M in FY2025, compounding −14.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B Small · P/E ratio 552.7 · P/S ratio 10.7 · EPS (TTM) $0.1800 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades at its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −83%, USPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.87Fair Value $17.16Bull$25.53
Price $99.49 · Downside -82.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
BuyKathleen A GilmartinDirector4,000 shares at $69.00$276,000Nov 20, 2025
Plan buyPeter Francis MinanDirector6.14 shares at $77.23$474Sep 11, 2026
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.8% vs −4.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.9% a year for the price and +4.5% for the forecasts.
Compare U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−82.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)552.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.19× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/USPH
Frequently asked questions
Is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.16 versus a price of $99.49, about 83% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of USPH?
Our model-based fair value for U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is $17.16 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $99.49.
What is the quality score of USPH?
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.16 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.87, optimistic scenario $25.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.16, about 83% lower versus a price of $99.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.87, optimistic scenario $25.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $830M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. pay a dividend?
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. pays a dividend of $1.83 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.23 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of USPH use?
Our models discount U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. that is +19.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +19.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (+19.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.07 %: that much free cash flow U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. it is $17.16 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $99.49. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, USPH trades above its calculated fair value: price $99.49, fair value $17.16, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of USPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($99.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.16). For U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. the two are $82.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. worth?
The market values U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $99.49; our models calculate a fair value of $17.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about USPH?
Our models span a range for U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.: cautious scenario $10.87, base $17.16, optimistic $25.53 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $99.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of USPH?
The PEG ratio of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 3.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is USPH from its 52-week high?
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. trades at $99.49, at its 52-week high of $99.49 and 71% above the low of $58.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $99.49, calculated fair value $17.16 (−83%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of USPH calculated?
We run U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $17.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $99.49. Our model-based fair value is $17.16, about 83% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.87 to $25.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) come from?
Earnings per share at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. grew −3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The market capitalisation of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 552.7 (ex one-offs 23.1 (fiscal year 2025), median at FY-end 26.0 (10 FY)). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 10.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
Earnings per share at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. are $0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 552.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The dividend yield of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The net margin of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
The operating margin of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
Revenue at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is growing +13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)?
Earnings per share at U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. are growing −56.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) carry?
The net debt of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. is $390M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026