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Var Energi ASA (VAR) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · NO · Market cap 108B NOK (≈ $11.6B) · ISIN NO0011202772

What is Var Energi ASA really worth?

VE Var Energi ASA VAR · OL
Pricekr 50.08
Fair Valuekr 6.82
Upside−86.4%
Quality58/100

A solid business, but trading 634% above our fair value of kr 6.82.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Var Energi ASA is kr 6.82 per share against a price of kr 50.08, so the fair value sits 86% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 76/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +23.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.7% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100

For context

·0.73% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range kr 3.86 – kr 8.41

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price +8.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 8.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (kr 3.86 to kr 8.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 51.58 kr 14.34 Fair Value kr 6.82 Feb 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

55‑month range kr 14.34 – kr 51.58 · fair‑value band kr 3.86 – kr 8.41 · the kr 50.08 price screens above the kr 6.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Var Energi ASA (VAR) currently trades at kr 50.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 6.82, implying the stock looks roughly 634.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 7.77 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 50.08 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 0.9800, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Var Energi ASA generated revenue of 8.8B NOK at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 45.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 97.5%. Net debt stands at 5.3B NOK. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 3.86 (bear case) to kr 8.41 (bull case); at kr 50.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −86%, VAR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 1.46 per share, which is 14.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (kr 0.1500 to kr 19.98). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV kr 5.92 kr 7.25 kr 8.41 74
Growth DCF kr 7.26 kr 16.95 kr 32.34 74
FCF DCF kr 7.53 kr 15.66 kr 36.24 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 7.53 kr 15.66 kr 36.24 73
Owner Earnings kr 1.50 kr 5.24 kr 12.46 68
5Y Revenue Exit kr 2.75 kr 5.85 kr 10.02 70
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 9.10 kr 19.98 kr 34.50 72
5Y P/E Exit kr 3.18 kr 6.80 kr 11.06 68
10Y Revenue Exit kr 4.10 kr 7.77 kr 13.50 64
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 8.55 kr 18.60 kr 35.62 64
10Y P/E Exit kr 4.50 kr 8.50 kr 14.45 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 2.31 kr 13.61 kr 18.96 63
Lynch FV kr 3.86 kr 5.52 kr 7.18 61
PEG = 1.0 kr 3.86 kr 5.52 kr 7.18 57
EPV kr 5.92 kr 7.25 kr 8.41 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 4.30 kr 8.95 kr 14.20 66
DDM Multi-Stage kr 4.30 kr 7.55 kr 9.39 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 3.56 kr 4.75 kr 5.93 63
P/S Multiple kr 2.92 kr 3.89 kr 4.86 58
P/B Multiple kr 0.3000 kr 0.4000 kr 0.5000 55
EV/EBIT kr 10.51 kr 14.70 kr 18.89 66
EV/EBITDA kr 10.36 kr 14.51 kr 18.65 67
EV/Revenue kr 0.6600 kr 1.83 kr 2.99 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.1100 kr 0.1500 kr 0.2200 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 7.26 kr 16.95 kr 32.34 74
Rev-Margin DCF kr 2.75 kr 5.82 kr 10.11 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 0.8300 kr 0.9800 kr 5.42 64
ROIC Compounder kr 7.25 kr 10.57 kr 14.89 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 4.78 kr 6.82 kr 8.87 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 7.77) versus Asset-Based (kr 0.1500). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.5
P/S ratio 1.94 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) kr 2.70 price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5
Dividend yield 0.7% payout 13.6%
Net margin 10.5% FY2025
Return on equity 97.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 20.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 49.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 8.8B NOK TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +45.0% 3y avg −6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −18.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 1.7B NOK FY2025
Net debt 5.3B NOK FY2025 · ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Vår Energi ASA operates as an independent upstream oil and gas company on the Norwegian continental shelf in Norway. The company produces crude oil and natural gas liquids. It also engages in the production, development, and exploration assets on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS).

Full company description

Vår Energi ASA operates as an independent upstream oil and gas company on the Norwegian continental shelf in Norway. The company produces crude oil and natural gas liquids. It also engages in the production, development, and exploration assets on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The company was formerly known as Eni Norge AS and changed its name to Vår Energi AS in December 2018. The company was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Sandnes, Norway. Vår Energi ASA is a subsidiary of Eni International B.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Var Energi ASA reported revenue of $8.1B in FY2025 versus $6.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $846M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
8.1B NOK
Latest YoY
+9.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+46.1% · in NOK
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+45.4%
Dividend yield0.7%
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22.8% (2019) → 51.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop809% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in NOK
Revenue +7.6%/yr
FY21 $6.0B
FY22 $9.8B
FY23 $6.8B
FY24 $7.4B
FY25 $8.1B
Net income +6.6%/yr
FY21 $654M
FY22 $936M
FY23 $610M
FY24 $327M
FY25 $846M

VAR screens 634% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Var Energi ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VAR.OL

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 293 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −86% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 97% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 45% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 10.43× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 20.76× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.32× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 7
FUTURE100 · sector 7
PAST100 · sector 9
HEALTH0 · sector 87
DIVIDEND15 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 −1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.78 C$44.78 −36%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $59.17 $30.06 −49%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $199.22 $105.24 −47%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $47.35 $27.06 −43%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Var Energi ASA (VAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 6.82 versus a price of kr 50.08, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VAR?
Our model-based fair value for Var Energi ASA is kr 6.82 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 50.08.
What is the quality score of VAR?
Var Energi ASA has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Var Energi ASA (VAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 6.82 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 3.86, optimistic scenario kr 8.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Var Energi ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 6.82, about −86% upside versus a price of kr 50.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 3.86, optimistic scenario kr 8.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Var Energi ASA (VAR)?
Var Energi ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.8B NOK (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VAR?
The net profit margin of Var Energi ASA is about 8.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Var Energi ASA pay a dividend?
Var Energi ASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.73% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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