Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC VND 182,557, price VND 289,000, upside -36.8%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company manufactures and sale coffee, instant cereal, and non-alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and internationally. The company operates in Coffee and Non-Alcoholic Drinks, and Others segments. It offers its products under the Vinacafe and All-In-One brands. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Biên Hòa, Vietnam.
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Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company manufactures and sale coffee, instant cereal, and non-alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and internationally. The company operates in Coffee and Non-Alcoholic Drinks, and Others segments. It offers its products under the Vinacafe and All-In-One brands. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Biên Hòa, Vietnam. Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company is a subsidiary of Masan Beverage Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) currently trades at 289,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 182,557 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 533,626 VND per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the 289,000 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 28,655 VND, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 124,356 VND (bear) to 296,522 VND (bull), the price of 289,000 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC reported revenue of 2.8T VND in FY2025 versus 2.2T VND in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 518B VND in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.7T VND · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) 18,878 VND · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 30.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.9% · Operating margin 20.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −37%, VCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 124,356 VNDFair Value 182,557 VNDBull 296,522 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (13,861 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 20%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 666 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−38% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)16.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.87× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.84× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VCF
Frequently asked questions
Is Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 182,557 VND versus a price of 289,000 VND, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VCF?
Our model-based fair value for Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 182,557 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 289,000 VND.
What is the quality score of VCF?
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 182,557 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 124,356 VND, optimistic scenario 296,522 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 182,557 VND, about −37% upside versus a price of 289,000 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 124,356 VND, optimistic scenario 296,522 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +20.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VCF use?
Our models discount Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.00, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC that is +20.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +20.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (+20.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.33 %: that much free cash flow Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC it is 182,557 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 289,000 VND. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VCF trades above its calculated fair value: price 289,000 VND, fair value 182,557 VND, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (289,000 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (182,557 VND). For Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC the two are 106,443 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC worth?
The market values Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC at about 7.7T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 289,000 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 182,557 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VCF?
Our models span a range for Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC: cautious scenario 124,356 VND, base 182,557 VND, optimistic 296,522 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 289,000 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VCF?
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 182,557 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.9, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 30.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VCF from its 52-week high?
Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC trades at 289,000 VND, about 13% below its 52-week high of 332,000 VND and 4% above the low of 278,000 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 182,557 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 289,000 VND, calculated fair value 182,557 VND (−37%), Quality Score 81/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VCF calculated?
We run Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 182,557 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 289,000 VND. Our model-based fair value is 182,557 VND, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (124,356 VND to 296,522 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The market capitalisation of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 7.7T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 2.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Earnings per share at Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC are 18,878 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The net margin of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 18.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 30.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 22.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
The operating margin of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Revenue at Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is growing −1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF)?
Earnings per share at Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC are growing −12.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC (VCF) carry?
The net debt of Vinacafe Bien Hoa JSC is 101B VND (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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