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Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company (VCF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · VN · Market cap 7.8T VND

VB Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company VCF · VN
Price295,000 VND
Fair Value293,244 VND
Upside-0.6%
Quality81/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.3% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Wide moat 80/100
Evidence: High Range 218,984 VND – 420,826 VND Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −0.8% over the past month.

A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (218,984 VND to 420,826 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

334,971 VND 106,798 VND Fair Value 293,244 VND Aug 2019 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 106,798 VND – 334,971 VND · fair‑value band 218,984 VND – 420,826 VND · the 295,000 VND price screens above the 293,244 VND fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company (VCF) currently trades at 295,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 293,244 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 0.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company generated revenue of 2.7T VND at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue declined 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.7%. Net debt stands at 101B VND. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 218,984 VND (bear case) to 420,826 VND (bull case); at 295,000 VND, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -1%, VCF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 116,600 VND 138,201 VND 595,107 VND 76
Growth DCF 149,803 VND 216,229 VND 312,781 VND 72
Gordon GGM 461,514 VND 913,353 VND 1,619,134 VND 70
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 145,424 VND 217,118 VND 326,289 VND 38
Owner Earnings 193,108 VND 288,793 VND 434,496 VND 31
5Y Revenue Exit 119,445 VND 177,881 VND 249,918 VND 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 180,391 VND 287,569 VND 408,688 VND 41
5Y P/E Exit 228,773 VND 374,645 VND 522,334 VND 38
10Y Revenue Exit 124,141 VND 179,301 VND 248,085 VND 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 166,605 VND 255,628 VND 367,749 VND 37
10Y P/E Exit 197,677 VND 316,220 VND 453,404 VND 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 132,479 VND 333,743 VND 433,451 VND 54
PEG = 1.0 61,505 VND 87,865 VND 114,224 VND 46
EPV 185,020 VND 217,154 VND 245,717 VND 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 461,514 VND 913,353 VND 1,619,134 VND 70
DDM Multi-Stage 461,514 VND 713,903 VND 1,000,186 VND 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 306,844 VND 409,126 VND 511,407 VND 63
P/S Multiple 124,677 VND 166,235 VND 207,794 VND 58
P/B Multiple 176,422 VND 235,230 VND 294,037 VND 55
EV/EBIT 273,630 VND 363,864 VND 454,098 VND 53
EV/EBITDA 225,708 VND 299,968 VND 374,228 VND 54
EV/Revenue 112,021 VND 158,774 VND 205,528 VND 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 21,385 VND 28,655 VND 42,769 VND 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 149,803 VND 216,229 VND 312,781 VND 72
Rev-Margin DCF 119,445 VND 179,323 VND 244,848 VND 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income 116,600 VND 138,201 VND 595,107 VND 76
ROIC Compounder 191,570 VND 232,999 VND 275,756 VND 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 237,006 VND 338,580 VND 440,153 VND 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (713,903 VND) versus Asset-Based (28,655 VND). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.7T VND
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.7%
Net margin 18.3%
Return on equity 30.7%
Free cash flow 332B VND FY2025
P/E ratio 15.6
More key figures
Operating margin 20.2%
EPS (TTM) 18,878 VND
EPS growth (YoY) -12.4%
Net debt 101B VND FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 81/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 89
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company manufactures and sale coffee, instant cereal, and non-alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and internationally. The company operates in Coffee and Non-Alcoholic Drinks, and Others segments. It offers its products under the Vinacafe and All-In-One brands. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Biên Hòa, Vietnam.

Full company description

Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company manufactures and sale coffee, instant cereal, and non-alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and internationally. The company operates in Coffee and Non-Alcoholic Drinks, and Others segments. It offers its products under the Vinacafe and All-In-One brands. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Biên Hòa, Vietnam. Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company is a subsidiary of Masan Beverage Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company reported revenue of 2.8T VND in FY2025 versus 2.2T VND in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 518B VND in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.8T VND
Latest YoY
+8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.9%
Revenue +5.6%/yr
FY21 2.2T VND
FY22 2.2T VND
FY23 2.4T VND
FY24 2.6T VND
FY25 2.8T VND
Net income +4.8%/yr
FY21 429B VND
FY22 319B VND
FY23 450B VND
FY24 446B VND
FY25 518B VND

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Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company · Fair Value
293,244 VND −1%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VCF

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Return on assets 16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 6.86× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.84× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 33 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 100 · sector 27
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%
Nongshim Co 004370 348,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company (VCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 293,244 VND versus a price of 295,000 VND, about −1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VCF?
Our model-based fair value for Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company is 293,244 VND (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 295,000 VND.
What is the quality score of VCF?
Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company (VCF)?
Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7T VND (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VCF?
The net profit margin of Vinacafé Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company is about 18.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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