Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Velocity Financial Llc stock $35.26, price $17.63, upside +100.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.93 – $20.76 · fair‑value band $12.38 – $139.66 · the $17.63 price screens below the $35.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States.
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The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties.
The company also provides warehouse and other properties. It offers its products through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California
Stock analysis
Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) currently trades at $17.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.26, implying the stock looks roughly 50% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $147.33 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $17.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.08, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.38 (bear) to $139.66 (bull), the price of $17.63 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Velocity Financial Llc reported revenue of $714M in FY2025 versus $181M in FY2021, a compound +40.9%/yr. Reported net income was $105M in FY2025, compounding +37.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $693M Small · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 1.82 · EPS (TTM) $2.77 · Net margin 28.6% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 100%, VEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.38Fair Value $35.26Bull$139.66
Price $17.63 · Upside +100.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $444,481 and none bought.
SaleMark R SzczepaniakChief Financial Officer12× since Dec 1, 2025: 17,810 shares, avg. $18.66$332,284Nov 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRoland Thomas KellyChief Legal Officer and GC7× since Dec 2, 2025: 34,655 shares, avg. $18.32$634,795Nov 5, 2026
SaleFiona TamChief Accounting Officer2× since Jul 7, 2026: 1,300 shares, avg. $19.00$24,700Aug 11, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJeffrey T. TaylorExecutive VP, Capital Markets7× since Dec 16, 2025: 22,787 shares, avg. $19.78$450,713Aug 11, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+30.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.2% vs 19.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 72%
2025 sits 82% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)28.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)25.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)176.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity9.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
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Is Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.26 versus a price of $17.63, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VEL?
Our model-based fair value for Velocity Financial Llc is $35.26 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.63.
What is the quality score of VEL?
Velocity Financial Llc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.26 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.38, optimistic scenario $139.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Velocity Financial Llc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.26, about +100% upside versus a price of $17.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.38, optimistic scenario $139.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Velocity Financial Llc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $380M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Velocity Financial Llc it is $35.26 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $17.63. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Velocity Financial Llc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, VEL trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.63, fair value $35.26, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.26). For Velocity Financial Llc the two are $17.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Velocity Financial Llc worth?
The market values Velocity Financial Llc at about $693M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $17.63; our models calculate a fair value of $35.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VEL?
Our models span a range for Velocity Financial Llc: cautious scenario $12.38, base $35.26, optimistic $139.66 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $17.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VEL?
Velocity Financial Llc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.26 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Velocity Financial Llc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 9.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VEL from its 52-week high?
Velocity Financial Llc trades at $17.63, about 15% below its 52-week high of $20.76 and 22% above the low of $14.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Velocity Financial Llc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Rocket Companies, Inc, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, PennyMac Financial Services, Inc, LIC Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Velocity Financial Llc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $17.63, calculated fair value $35.26 (+100%), Quality Score 40/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VEL calculated?
We run Velocity Financial Llc through 10 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $35.26 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Velocity Financial Llc currently trades 50% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $17.63. Our model-based fair value is $35.26, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Velocity Financial Llc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($12.38 to $139.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Velocity Financial Llc
How large is the market capitalisation of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The market capitalisation of Velocity Financial Llc is $693M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Velocity Financial Llc is 1.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Earnings per share at Velocity Financial Llc are $2.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The net margin of Velocity Financial Llc is 28.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Velocity Financial Llc is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Velocity Financial Llc is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The operating margin of Velocity Financial Llc is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Revenue at Velocity Financial Llc is growing +176% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Earnings per share at Velocity Financial Llc are growing +2.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) generate?
The free cash flow of Velocity Financial Llc is $17.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) carry?
The net debt of Velocity Financial Llc is $6.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026