VirnetX Holding (VHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $50.1M
VirnetX Holding
VHC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from $16.11 to $3.12 (−80.6%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +37.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($2.06 to $3.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.53 – $100.20 · fair‑value band $2.06 – $3.91 · the $15.08 price screens above the $3.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
VirnetX Holding (VHC) currently trades at $15.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.12, implying the stock looks roughly 79.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $162K. It earns a return on equity of -68.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $15.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.06 (bear case) to $3.91 (bull case); at $15.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -79%, VHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
VirnetX Holding Corporation, through its subsidiary VirnetX, Inc., operates as an Internet security software and technology company in the United States.
Full company description
VirnetX Holding Corporation, through its subsidiary VirnetX, Inc., operates as an Internet security software and technology company in the United States. It offers VirnetX One, a security-as-a-service platform to protect applications, services, and infrastructure; VirnetX Matrix, which protects internet-enabled enterprise applications, and connected devices, as well as control systems, such as file servers, data backup systems, and VPN or firewall environments. The company also provides VirnetX War Room for secure collaboration and visualization capabilities designed to support communications. It serves the U.S. Department of Defense, federal government, and commercial customers requiring real-time encrypted communications and network security. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Zephyr Cove, Nevada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
VirnetX Holding reported revenue of $162K in FY2025 versus $35.0K in FY2021, a compound +46.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.2M in FY2025.
VHC screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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