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VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of VirnetX Holding Corp $3.12, price $12.65, upside -75.3%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US92823T1088

VH VirnetX Holding Corp logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

VirnetX Holding Corp

VHC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.12 · Strongly overvalued (−75%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −77.8 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/8)
!Narrow moat 3/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$92.40 $3.53 Fair Value $3.12 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.53 – $92.40 · fair‑value band $2.06 – $3.91 · the $12.65 price screens above the $3.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

VirnetX Holding Corporation, through its subsidiary VirnetX, Inc., operates as an Internet security software and technology company in the United States.

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VirnetX Holding Corporation, through its subsidiary VirnetX, Inc., operates as an Internet security software and technology company in the United States. It offers VirnetX One, a security-as-a-service platform to protect applications, services, and infrastructure; VirnetX Matrix, which protects internet-enabled enterprise applications, and connected devices, as well as control systems, such as file servers, data backup systems, and VPN or firewall environments. The company also provides VirnetX War Room for secure collaboration and visualization capabilities designed to support communications. It serves the U.S. Department of Defense, federal government, and commercial customers requiring real-time encrypted communications and network security. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Zephyr Cove, Nevada.

Stock analysis

VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock (VHC) currently trades at $12.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.12, implying the stock looks roughly 305.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.06 (bear) to $3.91 (bull), the price of $12.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock reported revenue of $162K in FY2025 versus $35.0K in FY2021, a compound +46.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $50.1M · EPS (TTM) $−5.00 · Return on equity −68.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −39.0% · Operating margin −11,976% · Revenue (TTM) $162K · Revenue growth (YoY) +47.0% · Free cash flow −$15.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −75%, VHC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.06 Fair Value $3.12 Bull $3.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.68 $3.60 $5.37 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.68 $3.60 $5.37 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3,140.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−77.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −20.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
51.5% (2020) → −11,691.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VHC screens 306% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −34% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 47% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.23× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.24× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 49
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
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Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock · Fair Value
$3.12 −306%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VHC

Frequently asked questions

Is VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.12 versus a price of $12.65, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VHC?
Our model-based fair value for VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is $3.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.65.
What is the quality score of VHC?
VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $3.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.12, about −75% upside versus a price of $12.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.06, optimistic scenario $3.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $162K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock it is $3.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $12.65. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.65, fair value $3.12, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.12). For VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock the two are $9.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock worth?
The market values VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock at about $50.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $12.65; our models calculate a fair value of $3.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VHC?
Our models span a range for VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock: cautious scenario $2.06, base $3.12, optimistic $3.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $12.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VHC?
The PEG ratio of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −68.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VHC from its 52-week high?
VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock trades at $12.65, about 49% below its 52-week high of $24.84 and 24% above the low of $10.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $12.65, calculated fair value $3.12 (−75%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VHC calculated?
We run VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.65. Our model-based fair value is $3.12, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.06 to $3.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
The market capitalisation of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is $50.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
Earnings per share at VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock are $−5.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is −68.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is −39.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
The operating margin of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is −11,976% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)?
Revenue at VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is growing +47.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) generate?
The free cash flow of VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock is −$15.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) hold?
VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $15.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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