Vista Oil Gas (VIST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vista Oil Gas stock $59.20, price $57.42, upside +3.1%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.15 – $79.25 · fair‑value band $40.39 – $129.80 · the $57.42 price screens below the $59.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico.
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In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Vista Oil Gas (VIST) currently trades at $57.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $266.65 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the $57.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.96, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $40.39 (bear) to $129.80 (bull), the price of $57.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vista Oil Gas ADR reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $652M in FY2021, a compound +39.6%/yr. Reported net income was $719M in FY2025, compounding +94.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B Mid · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) $7.09 · Net margin 19.8% · Return on equity 26.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 45.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 3%, VIST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$40.39Fair Value $59.20Bull$129.80
Price $57.42 · Upside +3.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+92.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+64.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+64.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−26% → 34%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Robust output scaling from Vaca Muerta shale assets with strong ROE forms the main strength, while high leverage and negative free cash flow remain the central weakness with few moat signals.
Main risk: Changes to the RIGI incentives regime or other Argentine regulations could delay or raise costs for Vista's Vaca Muerta projects and export infrastructure access, squeezing margins on its crude sales.
Bull case: Vista could secure long-term regulatory stability through successful RIGI applications and partnerships that strengthen its position in export pipelines and projects.
Bear case: If Argentine political shifts restrict incentives or alter concession terms, Vista might face higher costs, delayed output growth and constrained exports from its Vaca Muerta assets.
Vista Energy keeps scaling output from its Vaca Muerta shale positions, with exports now accounting for over seventy percent of crude sales. A sizable share of the latest production increase stems from recently consolidated assets rather than purely organic drilling. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued despite the operational momentum. Will the export leverage and unit cost stability deliver enough to justify that valuation gap?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Below median
Fair Value upside+3.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)45.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)83.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vista Oil Gas ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VIST
Frequently asked questions
Is Vista Oil Gas (VIST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.20 versus a price of $57.42, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VIST?
Our model-based fair value for Vista Oil Gas is $59.20 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.42.
What is the quality score of VIST?
Vista Oil Gas has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.20 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.39, optimistic scenario $129.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vista Oil Gas ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.20, about +3% upside versus a price of $57.42 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $40.39, optimistic scenario $129.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Vista Oil Gas reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vista Oil Gas it is $59.20 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $57.42. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Vista Oil Gas ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, VIST trades below its calculated fair value: price $57.42, fair value $59.20, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VIST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.20). For Vista Oil Gas the two are $1.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vista Oil Gas ADR worth?
The market values Vista Oil Gas at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $57.42; our models calculate a fair value of $59.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VIST?
Our models span a range for Vista Oil Gas: cautious scenario $40.39, base $59.20, optimistic $129.80 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $57.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VIST?
Vista Oil Gas trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.20 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2021, FY2023 ex one-offs: 8.6. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vista Oil Gas (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 26.8%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VIST from its 52-week high?
Vista Oil Gas trades at $57.42, about 28% below its 52-week high of $79.25 and 31% above the low of $43.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vista Oil Gas ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vista Oil Gas ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $57.42, calculated fair value $59.20 (+3%), Quality Score 38/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VIST calculated?
We run Vista Oil Gas through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $59.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Vista Oil Gas currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $57.42. Our model-based fair value is $59.20, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vista Oil Gas ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($40.39 to $129.80). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Vista Oil Gas
How large is the market capitalisation of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
The market capitalisation of Vista Oil Gas is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vista Oil Gas is 1.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Earnings per share at Vista Oil Gas are $7.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
The net margin of Vista Oil Gas is 19.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vista Oil Gas is 26.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vista Oil Gas is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
The operating margin of Vista Oil Gas is 45.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Revenue at Vista Oil Gas is growing +83.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vista Oil Gas (VIST)?
Earnings per share at Vista Oil Gas are growing −7.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vista Oil Gas (VIST) generate?
The free cash flow of Vista Oil Gas is −$822M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vista Oil Gas (VIST) carry?
The net debt of Vista Oil Gas is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 9, 2026