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Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc $3.08, price $5.04, upside -38.9%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US9216591084

VP Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc

VNDA · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.08 · Strongly overvalued (−39%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -110.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$21.51 $3.38 Fair Value $3.08 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.38 – $21.51 · fair‑value band $2.04 – $3.86 · the $5.04 price screens above the $3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies to address high unmet medical needs worldwide.

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Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies to address high unmet medical needs worldwide. The company's commercial portfolio includes Fanapt for the acute treatment of manic or mixed episodes associated with bipolar I disorder and the treatment of schizophrenia; HETLIOZ to treat non-24-hour sleep-wake disorders and nighttime sleep disturbances; PONVORY to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis; and NEREUSTM for preventing vomiting induced by motion. It also develops Fanapt (iloperidone), a long acting injectable (LAI) formulation for the treatment of schizophrenia and hypertension; BysantiTM (milsaperidone), for the acute treatment of manic or mixed episodes associated with bipolar I disorder, and for the treatment of schizophrenia and major depressive disorder; HETLIOZ (tasimelteon) to treat jet lag disorder, insomnia, pediatric insomnia, delayed sleep phase disorder, and pediatric Non-24; PONVORY (ponesimod) to treat psoriasis and ulcerative colitis; and NEREUSTM (tradipitant) for prevention of vomiting induced by GLP-1 receptor agonists, as well as treatment of gastroparesis and atopic dermatitis. In addition, the company's products include Imsidolimab, an IL-36R antagonist to treat generalized pustular psoriasis; VTR-297, for the treatment of hematologic malignancies and onychomycosis, and several oncology indications; and VQW-765, small molecule alpha-7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist for the treatment of social/performance anxiety and psychiatric disorders. Further, it develops cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator activators and inhibitors; and antisense oligonucleotide molecules. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

Stock analysis

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) currently trades at $5.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 63.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.04 (bear) to $3.86 (bull), the price of $5.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $216M in FY2025 versus $269M in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$220M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $355M · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) $−4.06 · Net margin −102% · Return on equity −60.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.2% · Operating margin −97.1% · Revenue (TTM) $218M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −39%, VNDA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.04 Fair Value $3.08 Bull $3.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.72 $3.65 $5.44 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.72 $3.65 $5.44 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 69
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.0% (2020) → −70.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VNDA screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

Compare Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 650 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −39% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −19% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −110% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −97% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.63× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.23× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)17 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $516.34 $567.97 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc · Fair Value
$3.08 −64%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VNDA

Frequently asked questions

Is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.08 versus a price of $5.04, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VNDA?
Our model-based fair value for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is $3.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.04.
What is the quality score of VNDA?
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.04, optimistic scenario $3.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.08, about −39% upside versus a price of $5.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.04, optimistic scenario $3.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $218M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $3.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.04. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VNDA trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.04, fair value $3.08, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VNDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.08). For Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $1.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $355M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.04; our models calculate a fair value of $3.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VNDA?
Our models span a range for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $2.04, base $3.08, optimistic $3.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VNDA?
The PEG ratio of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −60.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VNDA from its 52-week high?
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $5.04, about 47% below its 52-week high of $9.56 and 17% above the low of $4.32 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.04, calculated fair value $3.08 (−39%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VNDA calculated?
We run Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.04. Our model-based fair value is $3.08, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.04 to $3.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
The market capitalisation of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is $355M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is 1.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Earnings per share at Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−4.06. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
The net margin of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is −102% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is −60.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is −6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
The operating margin of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is −97.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Revenue at Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA)?
Earnings per share at Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing −95.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) generate?
The free cash flow of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$110M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) hold?
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $72.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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