Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $355M

Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($2.04 to $3.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.38 – $21.51 · fair‑value band $2.04 – $3.86 · the $5.00 price screens above the $3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (VNDA) currently trades at $5.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 38.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $218M. Revenue grew 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -60.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $72.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.04 (bear case) to $3.86 (bull case); at $5.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -38%, VNDA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies to address high unmet medical needs worldwide.

Full company description

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies to address high unmet medical needs worldwide. The company's commercial portfolio includes Fanapt for the acute treatment of manic or mixed episodes associated with bipolar I disorder and the treatment of schizophrenia; HETLIOZ to treat non-24-hour sleep-wake disorders and nighttime sleep disturbances; PONVORY to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis; and NEREUSTM for preventing vomiting induced by motion. It also develops Fanapt (iloperidone), a long acting injectable (LAI) formulation for the treatment of schizophrenia and hypertension; BysantiTM (milsaperidone), for the acute treatment of manic or mixed episodes associated with bipolar I disorder, and for the treatment of schizophrenia and major depressive disorder; HETLIOZ (tasimelteon) to treat jet lag disorder, insomnia, pediatric insomnia, delayed sleep phase disorder, and pediatric Non-24; PONVORY (ponesimod) to treat psoriasis and ulcerative colitis; and NEREUSTM (tradipitant) for prevention of vomiting induced by GLP-1 receptor agonists, as well as treatment of gastroparesis and atopic dermatitis. In addition, the company's products include Imsidolimab, an IL-36R antagonist to treat generalized pustular psoriasis; VTR-297, for the treatment of hematologic malignancies and onychomycosis, and several oncology indications; and VQW-765, small molecule alpha-7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist for the treatment of social/performance anxiety and psychiatric disorders. Further, it develops cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator activators and inhibitors; and antisense oligonucleotide molecules. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $216M in FY2025 versus $269M in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$220M in FY2025.

VNDA screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Vanda Secures EMA Positive Opinion For Imsidolimab In Generalized Pustular Psoriasis Nasdaq · Jul 17, 2026
• Here’s Why H.C. Wainwright Remains a Buy on Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Yahoo Finance · Jul 3, 2026
• Japan's MHLW Grants Orphan Drug Designation To Vanda's Imsidolimab For GP Psoriasis Nasdaq · May 28, 2026
• Vanda targets $240M-$290M 2026 revenue as it introduces $10M-$30M NEREUS sales outlook Seeking Alpha · May 7, 2026

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 601 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.