Vanachai Group Public Company Limited (VNG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TH · Market cap 3.4B THB (≈ $102M) · ISIN TH0533010Z00
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 0.7000 THB to 1.12 THB (+60.0%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −7.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 76% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.66 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (0.8400 THB to 1.66 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.68 THB – 9.23 THB · fair‑value band 0.8400 THB – 1.66 THB · the 1.97 THB price screens above the 1.12 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vanachai Group Public Company Limited (VNG) currently trades at 1.97 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.12 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vanachai Group Public Company Limited generated revenue of 11.3B THB at a net margin of -5.3%. Revenue declined 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.8%. Net debt stands at 9.6B THB. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.8400 THB (bear case) to 1.66 THB (bull case); at 1.97 THB, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -39% fair-value upside, at -43%, VNG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (2.89 THB) versus Dividend Discount (0.6000 THB). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vanachai Group Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in production and distribution of wood plates, medium density fiberboards, particle boards, doorskin, and melamine on wood plates in Thailand and internationally.
Full company description
Vanachai Group Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in production and distribution of wood plates, medium density fiberboards, particle boards, doorskin, and melamine on wood plates in Thailand and internationally. The company offers oriented strand boards, shuttering board, melamine faced panels, moulded doors, melanine doors, decorative panels, laminate flooring, flooring and accessories, and plywoods, as well as polyester and veneer on MDF boards. It also manufactures glue and impregnated paper products; and engages in the manufacture of electricity from renewable energy, as well as in marketing management business. In addition, the company provides transportation services. The company was formerly known as MDF Planner Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Vanachai Group Public Company Limited. The company was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vanachai Group Public Company Limited reported revenue of 11.3B THB in FY2025 versus 13.0B THB in FY2021, a compound −3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −602M THB in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VNG screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $194.83 | $145.26 | -25% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$94.11 | C$33.38 | -65% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $88.29 | $107.07 | +21% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$75.22 | C$92.56 | +23% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $84.25 | $51.39 | -39% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹751.05 | ₹201.01 | -73% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥12.58 | ¥14.78 | +17% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.77 | C$4.54 | -69% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.98 | C$6.43 | -54% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.11 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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