Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 29, 2026: fair value of Vantage Drilling International $10.18, price $18.50, upside -45.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.17 – $19.50 · fair‑value band $5.72 – $13.86 · the $18.50 price screens above the $10.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Vantage Drilling International Ltd. operates as an offshore drilling company that provides offshore contract drilling services in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Drilling Services and Managed Services.
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Vantage Drilling International Ltd. operates as an offshore drilling company that provides offshore contract drilling services in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Drilling Services and Managed Services. The company offers contract drilling units, related equipment, and work crews on a dayrate basis to drill oil and gas wells. It also provides operational and marketing services for operating and stacked rigs; construction supervision services for rigs that are under construction; and preservation management services for stacked rigs. The company serves multinational oil and gas companies, government owned oil and gas companies, and independent oil and gas producers. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.
Stock analysis
Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF) currently trades at $18.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.18, 45.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $89.94 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the $18.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.50, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.72 (bear) to $13.86 (bull), the price of $18.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Vantage Drilling International reported revenue of $138M in FY2025 versus $158M in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $40.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $250M · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) $−4.39 · Net margin 29.2% · Return on equity 23.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% · Operating margin −8.1% · Revenue (TTM) $124M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 164% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −45%, VTDRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.72Fair Value $10.18Bull $13.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−42.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −15.8% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−48.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−48.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−48.2% vs 41.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−190% → −39%
Compare Vantage Drilling International with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 33 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside−45.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)47.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth59.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.71× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.01× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)93· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vantage Drilling International Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VTDRF
Frequently asked questions
Is Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.18 versus the last price from Jun 29, 2026 of $18.50, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VTDRF?
Our model-based fair value for Vantage Drilling International is $10.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 29, 2026): $18.50.
What is the quality score of VTDRF?
Vantage Drilling International has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.72, optimistic scenario $13.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vantage Drilling International stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.18, about −45% upside versus the last price from Jun 29, 2026 of $18.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.72, optimistic scenario $13.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Vantage Drilling International reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $124M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vantage Drilling International it is $10.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.50. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vantage Drilling International stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VTDRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.50, fair value $10.18, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VTDRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.18). For Vantage Drilling International the two are $8.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vantage Drilling International worth?
The market values Vantage Drilling International at about $250M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.50; our models calculate a fair value of $10.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VTDRF?
Our models span a range for Vantage Drilling International: cautious scenario $5.72, base $10.18, optimistic $13.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vantage Drilling International (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.2%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VTDRF from its 52-week high?
Vantage Drilling International trades at $18.50, about 5% below its 52-week high of $19.50 and 164% above the low of $7.00 (as of Jun 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vantage Drilling International?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Valaris Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vantage Drilling International stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.50, calculated fair value $10.18 (−45%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VTDRF calculated?
We run Vantage Drilling International through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vantage Drilling International itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 29, 2026 and stands at $18.50. Our model-based fair value is $10.18, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vantage Drilling International right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.72 to $13.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vantage Drilling International
How large is the market capitalisation of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
The market capitalisation of Vantage Drilling International is $250M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vantage Drilling International is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Earnings per share at Vantage Drilling International are $−4.39. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
The net margin of Vantage Drilling International is 29.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vantage Drilling International is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vantage Drilling International is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
The operating margin of Vantage Drilling International is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Revenue at Vantage Drilling International is growing +59.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF)?
Earnings per share at Vantage Drilling International are growing −85.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Vantage Drilling International is −$49.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vantage Drilling International (VTDRF) hold?
Vantage Drilling International holds more cash than debt, $96.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026