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Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN AU0000066086

VE Vulcan Energy Resources Limited logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Vulcan Energy Resources Limited

VULNF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.8600 · Strongly overvalued (−51%)
!Quality 16/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.4 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$12.40 $1.21 Fair Value $0.8600 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.21 – $12.40 · fair‑value band $0.5700 – $1.08 · the $1.74 price screens above the $0.8600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Vulcan Energy Resources Limited engages in the geothermal energy, and lithium exploration and production activities in Europe, Germany, and Australia. The company is involved in exploration and development of battery materials and geothermal lithium; and provision of engineering services. It holds interests in the Phase One Lionheart Project.

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Vulcan Energy Resources Limited engages in the geothermal energy, and lithium exploration and production activities in Europe, Germany, and Australia. The company is involved in exploration and development of battery materials and geothermal lithium; and provision of engineering services. It holds interests in the Phase One Lionheart Project. The company was formerly known as Koppar Resources Limited and changed its name to Vulcan Energy Resources Limited in September 2019. Vulcan Energy Resources Limited was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF) currently trades at $1.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8600, implying the stock looks roughly 102.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.5700 (bear) to $1.08 (bull), the price of $1.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Vulcan Energy Resources Limited reported revenue of €7.4M in FY2025 versus €7.5M in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€69.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B · EPS (TTM) $−0.3400 · Return on equity −11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.5% · Operating margin −955% · Revenue (TTM) $7.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) −25.9% · Free cash flow −$98.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −51%, VULNF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5700 Fair Value $0.8600 Bull $1.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.9000 $1.20 $1.79 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9000 $1.20 $1.79 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 16/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 7
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−64.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−23.7% (2020) → −1,246.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VULNF screens 102% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Vale S.A VALE $15.23 $8.95 −41%
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CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.15 ¥18.88 +4%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$16.67 A$34.40 +106%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $66.44 $32.09 −52%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥58.52 ¥31.26 −47%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹576.05 ₹633.66 +10%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥37.48 ¥6.50 −83%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.59 ¥41.35 +10%

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Vulcan Energy Resources Limited · Fair Value
$0.8600 −102%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vulcan Energy Resources Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VULNF

Frequently asked questions

Is Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8600 versus a price of $1.74, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VULNF?
Our model-based fair value for Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is $0.8600 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.74.
What is the quality score of VULNF?
Vulcan Energy Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8600 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5700, optimistic scenario $1.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vulcan Energy Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8600, about −51% upside versus a price of $1.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5700, optimistic scenario $1.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
Vulcan Energy Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vulcan Energy Resources Limited it is $0.8600 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $1.74. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vulcan Energy Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, VULNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.74, fair value $0.8600, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VULNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8600). For Vulcan Energy Resources Limited the two are $0.8800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vulcan Energy Resources Limited worth?
The market values Vulcan Energy Resources Limited at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $1.74; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VULNF?
Our models span a range for Vulcan Energy Resources Limited: cautious scenario $0.5700, base $0.8600, optimistic $1.08 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $1.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VULNF from its 52-week high?
Vulcan Energy Resources Limited trades at $1.74, about 68% below its 52-week high of $5.43 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vulcan Energy Resources Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vulcan Energy Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $1.74, calculated fair value $0.8600 (−51%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VULNF calculated?
We run Vulcan Energy Resources Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Vulcan Energy Resources Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Vulcan Energy Resources Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.5700 to $1.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
The market capitalisation of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
Earnings per share at Vulcan Energy Resources Limited are $−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is −11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is −11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
The operating margin of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is −955% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF)?
Revenue at Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is growing −25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF) generate?
The free cash flow of Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is −$98.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (VULNF) hold?
Vulcan Energy Resources Limited holds more cash than debt, $93.2M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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