West African Resources Ltd (WAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of West African Resources Ltd A$3.54, price A$3.45, upside +2.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6650 – A$3.92 · fair‑value band A$2.50 – A$4.30 · the A$3.45 price screens below the A$3.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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West African Resources Limited engages in the mining, mineral processing, acquisition, exploration, and project development of gold projects in West Africa. The company has 85% interests in the Sanbrado Gold and Kiaka Gold projects located in Burkina Faso. It also holds interests in the Toega Gold Project located in Burkina Faso.
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West African Resources Limited engages in the mining, mineral processing, acquisition, exploration, and project development of gold projects in West Africa. The company has 85% interests in the Sanbrado Gold and Kiaka Gold projects located in Burkina Faso. It also holds interests in the Toega Gold Project located in Burkina Faso. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
West African Resources Ltd (WAF) currently trades at A$3.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.54, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$8.43 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$3.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.7300, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$2.50 (bear) to A$4.30 (bull), the price of A$3.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
West African Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$724M in FY2025 versus A$310M in FY2021, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$224M in FY2025, compounding +25.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.5B (≈ $3.1B) · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 2.58 · EPS (TTM) A$0.4132 · Net margin 30.9% · Return on equity 36.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 28.8% · Operating margin 53.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 3%, WAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$2.50Fair Value A$3.54Bull A$4.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3055 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+257.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−560% → 45%
Compare West African Resources Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside+2.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)36.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)30.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)53.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth176.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is West African Resources Ltd (WAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.54 versus a price of A$3.45, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WAF?
Our model-based fair value for West African Resources Ltd is A$3.54 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.45.
What is the quality score of WAF?
West African Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.54 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.50, optimistic scenario A$4.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West African Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.54, about +3% upside versus a price of A$3.45 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$2.50, optimistic scenario A$4.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
West African Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For West African Resources Ltd it is A$3.54 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$3.45. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is West African Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, WAF trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.45, fair value A$3.54, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.54). For West African Resources Ltd the two are A$0.0900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is West African Resources Ltd worth?
The market values West African Resources Ltd at about A$4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$3.45; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAF?
Our models span a range for West African Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.50, base A$3.54, optimistic A$4.30 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$3.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WAF?
West African Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for West African Resources Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 36.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAF from its 52-week high?
West African Resources Ltd trades at A$3.45, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$3.92 and 29% above the low of A$2.67 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to West African Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is West African Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$3.45, calculated fair value A$3.54 (+3%), Quality Score 47/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAF calculated?
We run West African Resources Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. West African Resources Ltd currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$3.45. Our model-based fair value is A$3.54, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with West African Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of West African Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The market capitalisation of West African Resources Ltd is A$4.5B (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of West African Resources Ltd is 2.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Earnings per share at West African Resources Ltd are A$0.4132 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The net margin of West African Resources Ltd is 30.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of West African Resources Ltd is 36.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of West African Resources Ltd is 28.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The operating margin of West African Resources Ltd is 53.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Revenue at West African Resources Ltd is growing +176% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Earnings per share at West African Resources Ltd are growing +101% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does West African Resources Ltd (WAF) generate?
The free cash flow of West African Resources Ltd is −A$236M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does West African Resources Ltd (WAF) carry?
The net debt of West African Resources Ltd is A$34.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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