West African Resources Ltd (WAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what West African Resources Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$4.2B (≈ $3.0B) · ISIN AU000000WAF6
At a glance
WAWest African Resources LtdWAF · AU
PriceA$3.89
Fair ValueA$3.33
Upside−14.4%
Quality47/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 17% above our fair value of A$3.33.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of West African Resources Ltd is A$3.33 per share against a price of A$3.89, so the fair value sits 14% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +257.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.7% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
✓Wide moat 89/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range A$2.50 to A$7.79
!Weak on valuation: 14 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange A$2.50 to A$7.79
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +9.6% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The model range is unusually wide (A$2.50 to A$7.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6650 – A$3.92 · fair‑value band A$2.50 – A$7.79 · the A$3.89 price screens above the A$3.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
West African Resources Ltd (WAF) currently trades at A$3.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.33, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$8.43 per share, and 5 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$3.89 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.7300, and 11 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, West African Resources Ltd generated revenue of A$1.5B at a net margin of 30.7%. Revenue grew 176.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.9%. Net debt stands at A$34.3M. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: A$2.50 (bear) to A$7.79 (bull), the price of A$3.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −14%, WAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2842 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio9.5
P/S ratio2.93P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)A$0.4100price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5
Dividend yield0.2%payout 2.0%
Net margin30.9%FY2025
Return on equity36.9%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)28.8%avg 5y
Operating margin53.9%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)A$1.5BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+176%3y avg +0.6%
EPS growth (YoY)+101%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−A$236MFY2025
Net debtA$34.3MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality47/100
Of which business quality 48
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Profitability59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance23
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
West African Resources Limited engages in the mining, mineral processing, acquisition, exploration, and project development of gold projects in West Africa. The company has 85% interests in the Sanbrado Gold and Kiaka Gold projects located in Burkina Faso. It also holds interests in the Toega Gold Project located in Burkina Faso.
Full company description
West African Resources Limited engages in the mining, mineral processing, acquisition, exploration, and project development of gold projects in West Africa. The company has 85% interests in the Sanbrado Gold and Kiaka Gold projects located in Burkina Faso. It also holds interests in the Toega Gold Project located in Burkina Faso. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
West African Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$724M in FY2025 versus A$310M in FY2021, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$224M in FY2025, compounding +25.8%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$724M
Latest YoY
+10.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+257.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+89.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+15.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+15.2%
Dividend yield0.2%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−560.3% (2020) → 44.8% (2025) · rising
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE14· sector 0
FUTURE100· sector 100
PAST100· sector 2
HEALTH85· sector 98
DIVIDEND4· sector 21
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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Is West African Resources Ltd (WAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.33 versus a price of A$3.89, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WAF?
Our model-based fair value for West African Resources Ltd is A$3.33 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.89.
What is the quality score of WAF?
West African Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.33 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.50, optimistic scenario A$7.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West African Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.33, about −14% upside versus a price of A$3.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.50, optimistic scenario A$7.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
West African Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WAF?
The net profit margin of West African Resources Ltd is about 30.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does West African Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
West African Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For West African Resources Ltd it is A$3.33 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of A$3.89. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is West African Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, WAF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$3.89, fair value A$3.33, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.33). For West African Resources Ltd the two are A$0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is West African Resources Ltd worth?
The market values West African Resources Ltd at about A$4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is A$3.89; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAF?
Our models span a range for West African Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.50, base A$3.33, optimistic A$7.79 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price A$3.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WAF?
West African Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for West African Resources Ltd (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 36.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAF from its 52-week high?
West African Resources Ltd trades at A$3.89, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$3.97 and 85% above the low of A$2.11 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to West African Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is West African Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price A$3.89, calculated fair value A$3.33 (−14%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAF calculated?
We run West African Resources Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. West African Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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