Waldencast plc (WALD) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $200M

Below-average quality, screening 88% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.95). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($1.95 to $3.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7630 – $11.48 · fair‑value band $1.95 – $3.91 · the $1.39 price screens below the $2.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Waldencast plc (WALD) currently trades at $1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.62, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Waldencast plc generated revenue of $272M at a net margin of -84.5%. Revenue declined 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -40.3%. Net debt stands at $117M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.95 (bear case) to $3.91 (bull case); at $1.39, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 88%, WALD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Waldencast plc operates in the beauty and wellness industry in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, India, Australia, and New Zealand. The company operates through two segments, Obagi Medical and Milk Makeup.

Full company description

Waldencast plc operates in the beauty and wellness industry in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, India, Australia, and New Zealand. The company operates through two segments, Obagi Medical and Milk Makeup. It offers skin care products to minimize signs of skin aging, address dark spots, hyperpigmentation, fine lines and wrinkles, and protect and enhance skin tone and texture; cosmetics; and other beauty products. In addition, the company provides foundation, concealer, primer, blush, setting spray, and bronzer categories, as well as sells liner, eyeshadow, and lip color products. It serves distributors, retailers, physicians, and directly to consumers through its e-commerce platforms, and third-party logistics and delivery providers. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Waldencast plc reported revenue of $272M in FY2025 versus $94.4M in FY2020, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$230M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Household & Personal Products · 244 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.