Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd ZAR 419, price ZAR 140, upside +200.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R71.11 – R234.19 · fair‑value band R295.85 – R549.43 · the R139.50 price screens below the R418.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Limited operates as a construction company in South Africa, rest of Africa, and the United Kingdom.
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Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Limited operates as a construction company in South Africa, rest of Africa, and the United Kingdom. It undertakes construction of buildings, including retail, commercial offices, residential, healthcare, hotels and entertainment, warehousing and industrial, and data centres; civil engineering and infrastructure for mining, industrial, and water and energy infrastructure; and roads and earthworks, such as road and bridges, bulk earthworks, dams, oil and gas, and rail and pipeline infrastructure projects. The company also undertakes construction of airports, toll roads, renewable energy, and serviced accommodation; and manufactures, supplies, and installs long-steel products. Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Limited was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) currently trades at R139.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R418.50, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R521.35 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the R139.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R68.71, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R295.85 (bear) to R549.43 (bull), the price of R139.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd reported revenue of 28.5B ZAR in FY2025 versus 19.5B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +40.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.8B ZAC · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) R22.93 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 23.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 200%, WBO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R295.85Fair Value R418.50Bull R549.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (16.73 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−25.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −27.9% a year for the price.
Compare Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 840 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R418.50 versus a price of R139.50, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WBO?
Our model-based fair value for Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is R418.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R139.50.
What is the quality score of WBO?
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R418.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R295.85, optimistic scenario R549.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R418.50, about +200% upside versus a price of R139.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R295.85, optimistic scenario R549.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 27.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd pay a dividend?
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -25.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WBO use?
Our models discount Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd that is -25.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd grew -7.9 % a year. The price currently implies -25.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (-25.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.09 %: that much free cash flow Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd it is R418.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R139.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WBO trades below its calculated fair value: price R139.50, fair value R418.50, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WBO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R139.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R418.50). For Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd the two are R279.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd worth?
The market values Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd at about 8.8B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R139.50; our models calculate a fair value of R418.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WBO?
Our models span a range for Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd: cautious scenario R295.85, base R418.50, optimistic R549.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R139.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WBO?
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R418.50 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 6.1 (reported for FY2025: 5.8). Other multiples: PEG 87.7, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
What is the PEG ratio of WBO?
The PEG ratio of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 87.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.9%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WBO from its 52-week high?
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd trades at R139.50, about 34% below its 52-week high of R211.26 and 3% above the low of R135.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R418.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R139.50, calculated fair value R418.50 (+200%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WBO calculated?
We run Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R418.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R139.50. Our model-based fair value is R418.50, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R295.85). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R295.85 to R549.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) come from?
Earnings per share at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd grew +6.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.4 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The market capitalisation of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 8.8B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Earnings per share at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd are R22.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The dividend yield of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 4.4% (payout 27.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The net margin of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
The operating margin of Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Revenue at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO)?
Earnings per share at Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd are growing +1.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd (WBO) hold?
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon Ltd holds more cash than debt, 3.5B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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