Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Wesfarmers Ltd $15.38, price $26.50, upside -42.0%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.11 – $32.53 · fair‑value band $11.54 – $19.98 · the $26.50 price screens above the $15.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Wesfarmers Limited engages in the retail business in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
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Wesfarmers Limited engages in the retail business in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. The company sells outdoor living and building materials, as well as home, garden, and lifestyle improvement products; apparel and general merchandise, including toys and consumables, as well as leisure, entertainment, and soft home products; and office products and solutions, such as stationery, technology, furniture, art supplies, and learning and development resources, as well as print and create, and technical support services through its Officeworks stores. It also provides hardware and software repairs, system security solutions, wireless and wired networking services, virus and spyware prevention and removal, and data backup and recovery solutions. In addition, the company manufactures and supplies ammonia, ammonium nitrate, and industrial chemicals; manufactures, imports, and distributes phosphate, nitrogen, and potassium-based fertilizers, as well as soil and plant analysis service supported; supplies polyvinyl chloride resins; produces wood-plastic composite products; and manufactures and distributes sodium cyanide and lithium hydroxide. Further, it supplies and distributes maintenance, repair, operating, and industrial safety products and services; supplies tools, safety gear, personal protective equipment, electricals, work wear, and other industrial supplies; provides risk and compliance management services, as well as footwear; and offers safety products, uniforms, engineering supplies, and packaging services. Additionally, the company provides health, beauty, and wellbeing products and services; clinical cosmetic and skin care treatments; digital health services; and retail support services, as well as distributes pharmaceutical goods; operates an online marketplace; and manages retail subscription program and retail media network. Wesfarmers Limited was founded in 1914 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR (WFAFY) currently trades at $26.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.38, 42.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.76 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $26.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.89, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.54 (bear) to $19.98 (bull), the price of $26.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR reported revenue of A$45.6B in FY2025 versus A$33.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.9B in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $68.2B · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) $0.9400 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 36.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −42%, WFAFY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.54Fair Value $15.38Bull $19.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.1% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.5% vs 6.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Home Improvement Retail · 32 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−31.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)36.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B10.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.12× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF28.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)16· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.38 versus a price of $26.50, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WFAFY?
Our model-based fair value for Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is $15.38 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.50.
What is the quality score of WFAFY?
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.38 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.54, optimistic scenario $19.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wesfarmers Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.38, about −42% upside versus a price of $26.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.54, optimistic scenario $19.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$46.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Wesfarmers Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wesfarmers Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WFAFY use?
Our models discount Wesfarmers Ltd ADR at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wesfarmers Ltd ADR that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wesfarmers Ltd ADR grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wesfarmers Ltd ADR (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.96 %: that much free cash flow Wesfarmers Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wesfarmers Ltd ADR it is $15.38 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $26.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wesfarmers Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, WFAFY trades above its calculated fair value: price $26.50, fair value $15.38, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WFAFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.38). For Wesfarmers Ltd ADR the two are $11.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wesfarmers Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Wesfarmers Ltd ADR at about $68.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $26.50; our models calculate a fair value of $15.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WFAFY?
Our models span a range for Wesfarmers Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $11.54, base $15.38, optimistic $19.98 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $26.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WFAFY?
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.7, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 22.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wesfarmers Ltd ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 36.4%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WFAFY from its 52-week high?
Wesfarmers Ltd ADR trades at $26.50, about 19% below its 52-week high of $32.53 and 6% above the low of $24.97 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wesfarmers Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value The Home Depot, Inc, Lowe's Companies, Inc, Floor & Decor Holdings, Mr D.I.Y. Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wesfarmers Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $26.50, calculated fair value $15.38 (−42%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WFAFY calculated?
We run Wesfarmers Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Wesfarmers Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $26.50. Our model-based fair value is $15.38, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wesfarmers Ltd ADR right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY) come from?
Earnings per share at Wesfarmers Ltd ADR grew +6.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.9 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The market capitalisation of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is $68.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is 1.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Earnings per share at Wesfarmers Ltd ADR are $0.9400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The dividend yield of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is 2.4% (payout 66.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The net margin of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is 13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
The operating margin of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Revenue at Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY)?
Earnings per share at Wesfarmers Ltd ADR are growing +9.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Wesfarmers Ltd (WFAFY) carry?
The net debt of Wesfarmers Ltd ADR is A$10.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026