The Home Depot, Inc (HD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $342B
The Home Depot, Inc
HD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +1.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($335.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($131.70 to $335.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $242.07 – $414.97 · fair‑value band $131.70 – $335.97 · the $349.52 price screens above the $236.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
The Home Depot, Inc (HD) currently trades at $349.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $236.85, implying the stock looks roughly 32.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Home Depot, Inc generated revenue of $167B at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 128.4%. Net debt stands at $64.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $131.70 (bear case) to $335.97 (bull case); at $349.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -21% fair-value upside, at -32%, HD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($262.49) versus Asset-Based ($8.61). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products.
Full company description
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, windows, and window coverings. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, insulation installers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, roofers, and wallboard and ceiling installers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; constructionresourcesusa.com or design-oriented surfaces, appliances, and architectural specialty products; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, heritagepoolsupplygroup.com, and gms.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The Home Depot, Inc reported revenue of $165B in FY2026 versus $151B in FY2022, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $14.2B in FY2026, compounding −3.7%/yr from FY2022.
HD screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Lowe's Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Home Depot (HD) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?
- Home Depot (HD) Surpasses Market Returns: Some Facts Worth Knowing
- The Home Depot to Host Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call on August 18
- Home Depot accused of using customers to boost profit
Peer Group
Home Improvement Retail · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Home Improvement Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lowe's Companies, Inc LOW | $209.66 | $186.32 | -11% |
| Wesfarmers Limited WES | A$92.80 | A$50.50 | -46% |
| Floor & Decor Holdings FND | $56.40 | $32.81 | -42% |
| Mr D.I.Y. Group 5296 | 1.70 MYR | 1.47 MYR | -14% |
| Home Product Center Public Company HMPROR | 6.65 THB | 6.31 THB | -5% |
| Siam Global House Public Company GLOBAL | 7.50 THB | 5.96 THB | -21% |
| Dohome Public Company DOHOME | 3.86 THB | 2.90 THB | -25% |
| Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT | $25.66 | $22.53 | -12% |
| Test-Rite International Co 2908 | 22.00 TWD | 9.18 TWD | -58% |
| Bourrelier Group ALBOU | €67.00 | €37.21 | -44% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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