AVARGA LTD (X5N) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of AVARGA LTD S$3.02, price S$2.69, upside +12.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Avarga Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the portfolio investment business in Canada, and the United States. The company operates in two segments: Portfolio Investment and Building Materials Distribution.
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Avarga Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the portfolio investment business in Canada, and the United States. The company operates in two segments: Portfolio Investment and Building Materials Distribution. It distributes building materials, such as lumber, panels, mouldings, sidings, engineered wood, flooring, roofing, insulation, and other products to the supply yards, building product retailers, and industrial manufacturers. The company also engages in investment activities, as well as provides management services. It exports its products to Pacific Rim countries, Central and South America, the Middle East, and Europe. The company was formerly known as UPP Holdings Limited and changed its name to Avarga Limited in April 2018. Avarga Limited was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Singapore. Avarga Limited operates as a subsidiary of ZICO Trust (S) Ltd.
Stock analysis
AVARGA LTD (X5N) currently trades at 2.69 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.02 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 10.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.94 SGD per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the 2.69 SGD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.19 SGD, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 2.35 SGD (bear) to 3.77 SGD (bull), the price of 2.69 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
AVARGA LTD reported revenue of 1.5B SGD in FY2025 versus 2.4B SGD in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.1M SGD in FY2025, compounding −35.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 244M SGD (≈ $191M) · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) 0.1700 SGD · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3% · Operating margin 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 12%, X5N screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.35 SGDFair Value 3.02 SGDBull 3.77 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−29.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+12.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.9% · Below median
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)44.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AVARGA LTD Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/X5N
Frequently asked questions
Is AVARGA LTD (X5N) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.02 SGD versus the last price from Sep 21, 2026 of 2.69 SGD, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of X5N?
Our model-based fair value for AVARGA LTD is 3.02 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 21, 2026): 2.69 SGD.
What is the quality score of X5N?
AVARGA LTD has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.02 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.35 SGD, optimistic scenario 3.77 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AVARGA LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.02 SGD, about +12% upside versus the last price from Sep 21, 2026 of 2.69 SGD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2.35 SGD, optimistic scenario 3.77 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
AVARGA LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B SGD (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AVARGA LTD would have to grow free cash flow by -10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -11.1 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of X5N use?
Our models discount AVARGA LTD at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AVARGA LTD that is -10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AVARGA LTD (X5N) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at AVARGA LTD grew -11.1 % a year. The price currently implies -10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AVARGA LTD (X5N) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AVARGA LTD (-10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.31 %: that much free cash flow AVARGA LTD produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AVARGA LTD it is 3.02 SGD per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of 2.69 SGD. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AVARGA LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, X5N trades below its calculated fair value: price 2.69 SGD, fair value 3.02 SGD, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of X5N?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.69 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.02 SGD). For AVARGA LTD the two are 0.3300 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AVARGA LTD worth?
The market values AVARGA LTD at about 244M SGD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is 2.69 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 3.02 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about X5N?
Our models span a range for AVARGA LTD: cautious scenario 2.35 SGD, base 3.02 SGD, optimistic 3.77 SGD per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price 2.69 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of X5N?
AVARGA LTD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.02 SGD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
Balance-sheet figures for AVARGA LTD (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 5.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is X5N from its 52-week high?
AVARGA LTD trades at 2.69 SGD, about 1% below its 52-week high of 2.73 SGD and 29% above the low of 2.08 SGD (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.02 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AVARGA LTD?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AVARGA LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price 2.69 SGD, calculated fair value 3.02 SGD (+12%), Quality Score 64/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of X5N calculated?
We run AVARGA LTD through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.02 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AVARGA LTD currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 21, 2026 and stands at 2.69 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 3.02 SGD, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AVARGA LTD right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of AVARGA LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The market capitalisation of AVARGA LTD is 244M SGD (≈ $191M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AVARGA LTD is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
Earnings per share at AVARGA LTD are 0.1700 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The net margin of AVARGA LTD is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AVARGA LTD is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AVARGA LTD is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
The operating margin of AVARGA LTD is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
Revenue at AVARGA LTD is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AVARGA LTD (X5N)?
Earnings per share at AVARGA LTD are growing +144% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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