AVARGA LTD (X5N) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SG · Market cap 280M SGD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from 1.98 SGD (bear) to 3.30 SGD (bull), base 2.64 SGD. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 65/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.07 SGD – 2.73 SGD · fair‑value band 1.98 SGD – 3.30 SGD · the 2.67 SGD price screens above the 2.64 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AVARGA LTD (X5N) currently trades at 2.67 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.64 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 1.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, AVARGA LTD generated revenue of 1.5B SGD at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue declined 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.98 SGD (bear case) to 3.30 SGD (bull case); at 2.67 SGD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -1%, X5N screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (3.45 SGD) versus Earnings-Based (1.05 SGD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avarga Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the portfolio investment business in Canada, and the United States. The company operates in two segments: Portfolio Investment and Building Materials Distribution.
Full company description
Avarga Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the portfolio investment business in Canada, and the United States. The company operates in two segments: Portfolio Investment and Building Materials Distribution. It distributes building materials, such as lumber, panels, mouldings, sidings, engineered wood, flooring, roofing, insulation, and other products to the supply yards, building product retailers, and industrial manufacturers. The company also engages in investment activities, as well as provides management services. It exports its products to Pacific Rim countries, Central and South America, the Middle East, and Europe. The company was formerly known as UPP Holdings Limited and changed its name to Avarga Limited in April 2018. Avarga Limited was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Singapore. Avarga Limited operates as a subsidiary of ZICO Trust (S) Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AVARGA LTD reported revenue of 1.5B SGD in FY2025 versus 2.4B SGD in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.1M SGD in FY2025, compounding −35.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Industrial Distribution · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,305 | $613.88 | -53% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $52.22 | $20.64 | -60% |
| Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG | $245.18 | $148.98 | -39% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $364.60 | $213.01 | -42% |
| Watsco, Inc WSO | $309.41 | $268.10 | -13% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$218.77 | C$127.90 | -42% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $352.29 | $191.65 | -46% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$93.86 | C$76.38 | -19% |
| Addtech AB ADDTB | kr 344.00 | kr 156.35 | -55% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $46.63 | $49.47 | +6% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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