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Xer Tech Holding (XER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Xer Tech Holding SEK 1.27, price SEK 2.16, upside -41.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · SE

XT Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Xer Tech Holding

XER · ST

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value kr 1.27 · Strongly overvalued (−41.2%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −20.4 %/yr)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/6)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 11.20 kr 2.04 Fair Value kr 1.27 Apr 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

54‑month range kr 2.04 – kr 11.20 · fair‑value band kr 0.9600 – kr 1.59 · the kr 2.16 price screens above the kr 1.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Xer Tech Holding AB (publ) develops and sells hybrid-electric long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAVs) for dual-use defense and commercial applications. It offers UAV hardware with proprietary hybrid engines and modular platforms able to carry heavy payloads, integrated AI, and sensor systems for demanding defense and industrial missions.

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Xer Tech Holding AB (publ) develops and sells hybrid-electric long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAVs) for dual-use defense and commercial applications. It offers UAV hardware with proprietary hybrid engines and modular platforms able to carry heavy payloads, integrated AI, and sensor systems for demanding defense and industrial missions. The company's platform also supports operations including powerline inspections, mapping, surveillance, gas leak detection, emergency response, and defense applications such as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and mine detection. The company was formerly known as Renewable Ventures Nordic AB (publ). The company is based in Dietikon, Switzerland. Xer Tech Holding AB (publ) operates as a subsidiary of Rex Technology Investments Pte. Ltd.

Stock analysis

Xer Tech Holding (XER) currently trades at kr 2.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.27, 41.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 1.28 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the kr 2.16 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.2000, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 0.9600 (bear) to kr 1.59 (bull), the price of kr 2.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Xer Tech Holding reported revenue of 150K SEK in FY2025 versus 297K SEK in FY2022, a compound −20.4%/yr. Reported net income was −9.3M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 227M SEK (≈ $22.6M) · P/E ratio 0.0 · P/S ratio 31.7 · EPS (TTM) kr 64.60 · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.4% · Operating margin −350% · Revenue growth (YoY) +35.3% · Free cash flow 5.7M SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −41%, XER screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 0.9600 Fair Value kr 1.27 Bull kr 1.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 48.85 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF kr 0.9200 kr 1.25 kr 1.84 75
Growth DCF kr 0.9600 kr 1.28 kr 1.81 73
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 0.8600 kr 1.24 kr 1.75 69
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 0.9200 kr 1.25 kr 1.84 75
5Y Revenue Exit kr 0.3800 kr 0.4000 kr 0.4400 68
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 0.8600 kr 1.24 kr 1.75 69
10Y Revenue Exit kr 0.5900 kr 0.6300 kr 0.6600 63
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 0.8800 kr 1.14 kr 1.41 64
Multiples
EV/EBITDA kr 0.9600 kr 1.27 kr 1.59 64
EV/Revenue kr 0.0200 kr 0.0200 kr 0.0200 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.1500 kr 0.2000 kr 0.2900 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 0.9600 kr 1.28 kr 1.81 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−426.3% (2022) → −1,166.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−30.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −31.8% a year for the price.

XER screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −41.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 35.3% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Dell Technologies Inc DELL $539.59 $195.72 −64%
Arista Networks, Inc ANET $203.59 $161.24 −21%
Seagate Technology Holdings STX $922.34 $220.46 −76%
Western Digital Corporation WDC $453.23 $182.63 −60%
Wiwynn Corporation 6669 2,115 TWD 997.81 TWD −53%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$37.16 HK$33.71 −9%
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥32.63 ¥46.76 +43%
Everpure, Inc P $126.00 $51.34 −59%
Super Micro Computer, Inc SMCI $41.92 $45.03 +7%
HP Inc HPQ $31.32 $52.70 +68%

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Xer Tech Holding · Fair Value
kr 1.27 −41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xer Tech Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XER

Frequently asked questions

Is Xer Tech Holding (XER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.27 versus a price of kr 2.16, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XER?
Our model-based fair value for Xer Tech Holding is kr 1.27 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.16.
What is the quality score of XER?
Xer Tech Holding has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.27 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.9600, optimistic scenario kr 1.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xer Tech Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.27, about −41% upside versus a price of kr 2.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.9600, optimistic scenario kr 1.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xer Tech Holding would have to grow free cash flow by -30.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -20.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XER use?
Our models discount Xer Tech Holding at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xer Tech Holding that is -30.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xer Tech Holding (XER) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Xer Tech Holding grew -20.4 % a year. The price currently implies -30.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xer Tech Holding (XER) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xer Tech Holding (-30.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 41.58 %: that much free cash flow Xer Tech Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xer Tech Holding it is kr 1.27 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of kr 2.16. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xer Tech Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, XER trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 2.16, fair value kr 1.27, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.27). For Xer Tech Holding the two are kr 0.8900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xer Tech Holding worth?
The market values Xer Tech Holding at about 227M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.16; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XER?
Our models span a range for Xer Tech Holding: cautious scenario kr 0.9600, base kr 1.27, optimistic kr 1.59 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price kr 2.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XER?
Xer Tech Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 1.27 is built from several models across several years.
How far is XER from its 52-week high?
Xer Tech Holding trades at kr 2.16, about 64% below its 52-week high of kr 6.00 and 6% above the low of kr 2.04 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xer Tech Holding?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Seagate Technology Holdings, Western Digital Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xer Tech Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price kr 2.16, calculated fair value kr 1.27 (−41%), Quality Score 48/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XER calculated?
We run Xer Tech Holding through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xer Tech Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was kr 2.16. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.27, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xer Tech Holding right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 1.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Xer Tech Holding

How large is the market capitalisation of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
The market capitalisation of Xer Tech Holding is 227M SEK (≈ $22.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xer Tech Holding is 31.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
Earnings per share at Xer Tech Holding are kr 64.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xer Tech Holding is −8.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
The operating margin of Xer Tech Holding is −350% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xer Tech Holding (XER)?
Revenue at Xer Tech Holding is growing +35.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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